The Iran-U.S. ceasefire has been finalized, oil prices are declining, inflationary pressures are easing, market expectations for rate cuts are strengthening, and dollar liquidity expectations are loosening. The overall cryptocurrency market is relatively positive, with mainstream coins like Bitcoin and Ethereum rebounding, and the accumulated short positions during the conflict being liquidated en masse. In the short term, geopolitical panic is subsiding, and risk capital is flowing back into the crypto market. The memorandum is only a draft; if negotiations break down before the official signing or conflicts reignite, inflation concerns will rise again, dollar tightening expectations will return, and the crypto market will quickly correct.

After the situation eases, gold prices rise against the trend, with the core transmission chain being falling oil prices—reducing global inflation pressure—leading the market to lower expectations for Federal Reserve rate hikes, causing U.S. Treasury yields to decline, and decreasing the holding costs of non-yielding assets like gold, which benefits gold prices. Although short-term geopolitical risk aversion weakens, deep-seated conflicts such as nuclear issues and regional power struggles have not been fully resolved, leaving long-term uncertainties. Coupled with the slight weakening of the dollar and ongoing gold purchases by central banks worldwide, gold prices are on the rise. Currently, the market is mainly driven by expectations of Federal Reserve interest rate policies. Once the official agreement is smoothly implemented, gold price trends will shift focus to U.S. inflation data.

1. Positive Outlook Logic
After the ceasefire, navigation through the Strait of Hormuz resumes, crude oil prices decline, global energy inflation cools, and the market anticipates an earlier Fed rate cut, with dollar liquidity expected to loosen. Cryptocurrencies, as highly elastic risk assets, see their liquidity expectations improve, directly boosting the overall market. Funds that fled during geopolitical panic are returning, short positions are being liquidated en masse, pushing $BTC ‌ $ETH ‌ higher.

2. Short-term Weakening of Safe-Haven Attributes
The risk of large-scale conflict in the Middle East is temporarily alleviated, and funds no longer rely on Bitcoin for safe-haven purposes. The short-term safe-haven narrative for Bitcoin is fading, and the market trend mainly follows U.S. interest rates and the performance of the U.S. stock market.

3. Potential Correction Risks
Currently, only a memorandum has been signed; the official agreement has not yet been finalized. If negotiations break down or conflicts reignite, oil prices could surge again, inflation could rebound, rate hike expectations could rise, the dollar could strengthen, and the crypto market could decline rapidly. The medium- to long-term trend still depends on subsequent Federal Reserve interest rate decisions.

4. Short-term Trading Tips
The current rebound is driven by news, with increased volatility. Leverage positions should be reduced, and traders should be alert to price gaps caused by repeated geopolitical developments.