Supercomputers give an 78% win rate! But I’m most worried that Spain might make an old mistake

On paper strength.
Spain holds an absolute advantage.
There’s almost no debate about that.
But Spain has an old problem:
Loves ball control, occasionally forgets to shoot.
Fans often joke:
Others play football.
Spain plays passing training sessions.
My win rate prediction
Spain: 74%
Draw: 16%
Cape Verde: 10%
If they perform normally.
The match won’t be too suspenseful.
But if they fall into a state of “90% ball control, goals rely on luck.”
Cape Verde might have a chance to hold the game.
Three possible scenarios
Scenario 1:
Spain leads early.
Final score 3:0.
Scenario 2:
Long attack but no goal.
Final score 1:0.
Scenario 3:
Cape Verde defends successfully.
Both sides 1:1.
Best choice
Conservative:
✔ Spain remains undefeated
✔ More than 1.5 goals
Advanced:
✔ Spain with a handicap
Aggressive:
✔ Exact score 3:0
If you compare teams to cars.
Spain is a Ferrari.
Cape Verde is like an off-road vehicle.
Not as fast as you.
But especially tough.
So the biggest suspense in this game isn’t who’s stronger.
But how long it takes Spain to crack the code. #预测世界杯西班牙VS佛得角