First half-day summary regarding this early morning breakthrough slightly above 65,000 and subsequent market forecast:

1. Geopolitical positive factors. The easing of US-Iran tensions, risk appetite recovery. I interpret Bitcoin as a risk asset. After panic subsides, sentiment naturally warms up, and funds flow back.
2. Inflation expectations cool down. The Strait of Hormuz is a key global oil passage. Conflict easing → oil prices fall → global energy inflation pressure weakens. The market expects "more room for Federal Reserve rate cuts," which benefits liquidity and cryptocurrencies.
3. Short-term capital behavior: short sellers get squeezed and liquidated.

However, short-term pulses ≠ long-term reversals.

Positive factors are one-time catalysts, only capable of driving short-term surges. They do not change the medium- to long-term fundamentals (Federal Reserve policies, spot ETF capital inflows, regulatory risks). After geopolitical positives are digested, I predict the market will revert to technical structures and macro liquidity mainlines.

General approach:

Do not chase highs. 65,800–66,000 is a resistance zone. Chasing longs offers poor risk-reward.

Bullish: Wait for a pullback to 64,800–65,000 and stabilize before lightly adding longs, with a stop loss below 64,500.

Bearish: If the first attempt to break 66,000 fails, then short on a volume-driven pullback, with a stop loss above 66,300.

If volume breaks through 66,200, follow the trend and go long, with a stop loss at 65,900, targeting 66,800 and 67,500.
If it effectively breaks below 64,800, abandon longs, and on a rebound to 65,200–65,400, add to short positions accordingly.

Currently at a high level, with weak short-term bullish momentum; a pullback with stops is advisable.