$FHE 24-hour trading volume of 3.3M corresponds to a 14% price increase, but last night’s Federal Reserve minutes directly split the market in half before the non-farm payroll data. Did you understand this game of chess?

First, let’s talk macro chain: Last night’s minutes revealed Fed internal panic over the “overly tight” employment market, with the market betting on an earlier rate cut the night before the non-farm payrolls. But if non-farm payrolls exceed 180k, the dollar will directly drain risk appetite. Over the past 7 days, BTC and the S&P 500’s 30-day rolling correlation soared to 0.73 — crypto is now a miniature version of Nasdaq. Copper and crude oil also fell by 2.1% and 1.8%, respectively, which is strong evidence of a global recession expectation. More critically, although CPI dropped to 3.1%, core services inflation remains above 4.5% — this “nominal low, but sticky” structure has never allowed the Fed to achieve a soft landing in history.
Back to $FHE, the 0.0250 level is very delicate: the 24-hour low of 0.0215 is the 61.8% Fibonacci support of this rebound, but the MACD weekly death cross has not been repaired. If BTC breaks 34,000 before non-farm payrolls, FHE will likely retest around 0.022; if non-farm payrolls are less than 150k, it could surge to 0.028. Suggestion: if 0.0245-0.0250 can hold, go light with a 0.5% position to try long, with a stop loss at 0.0210; if volume drops below 0.023, immediately cut the position down to 0.2%. Don’t expect FHE to move independently; its volatility is 2.4 times that of BTC, but the direction is entirely aligned with dollar liquidity flow.
Remember, I’m watching the entire market liquidity transmission chain; the big players in crypto are now watching US Treasury yields’ face. Don’t just look at the charts, focus on the CME Fed Funds futures probability of rate cuts — that’s the real calibrator for where your stop-loss should be set.