NOAA officially announces the arrival of the "Super El Niño"! 63% chance it will be the strongest since 1950, countdown to global extreme weather.

The U.S. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) released its latest ENSO diagnostic report on the 11th, formally confirming that the El Niño phenomenon (El Niño) has developed in the equatorial Pacific, and predicting a 63% chance of evolving into a “Super El Niño” this winter, with intensity that could break records since 1950. The United Nations and the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) issued warnings in tandem, urging countries to immediately prepare for the impacts of extreme weather.
(Background recap: The U.S. monster hurricane “Milton” is heading straight for Florida; millions evacuate; Wells Fargo warns: insurance companies will pay dearly)
(Additional background: NVIDIA’s AI models strike again—accurately predicting the bizarre path of “Yamato”; netizens ask for more typhoon holidays to dodge Taiwan stock market crashes)

Table of Contents

Toggle

• NOAA latest data: multiple indicators all flashing red
• 63% chance of upgrading to “Super El Niño”: subsurface heat content in the Pacific is key
• Global climate bomb: Australian wildfires, South American floods, Asian droughts
• Chain reactions on the economy and commodity markets

In its latest ENSO diagnostic report released on June 11, the U.S. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) officially announced that the El Niño phenomenon (El Niño) has formed in the equatorial Pacific region, and that the world has officially entered the El Niño cycle. Even more alarming is NOAA’s prediction that this winter will have as high as a 63% chance of developing into a “Super El Niño” (Super El Niño); if it comes true, it would be the strongest one since comprehensive meteorological records began in 1950.

NOAA latest data: multiple indicators all flashing red

Based on observation data from the NOAA Climate Prediction Center (CPC), sea surface temperatures in the central-eastern equatorial Pacific are currently entirely above historical averages:

• Niño-3.4 index (the most commonly used El Niño indicator): +0.7°C, already crossing the El Niño threshold (+0.5°C)
• Niño-1+2 index (in the eastern Pacific closest to South America): as high as +2.1°C, indicating that warm-water anomalies are concentrated off the coast of Peru
• Niño-4 index (western Pacific): +0.7°C, with the warm-water area expanding westward

NOAA points out in the report that the “ocean-atmosphere coupling system” in the equatorial Pacific has fully reflected the initiation characteristics of the El Niño phenomenon: anomalous low-level westerly winds, anomalous high-level easterly winds, weakened convection over the Indonesia region, and the traditional Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) turning negative. These are textbook-level El Niño signals.

63% chance of upgrading to “Super El Niño”: subsurface heat content in the Pacific is key

NOAA’s North American Multi-Model Ensemble (NMME) forecast system shows that the El Niño phenomenon will continue to strengthen during the 2026-27 Northern Hemisphere winter. The reason NOAA gives a 63% chance for a Super El Niño is that the “subsurface ocean heat content” in the equatorial Pacific is abnormally high—put simply, there is an enormous reservoir of warm water beneath the surface, continuously transferring energy up toward the surface.

Historically, since 1950, Super El Niño events have occurred only three times: 1982-83, 1997-98, and 2015-16. The 1997-98 Super El Niño caused roughly 23,000 deaths globally and economic losses exceeding $45 billion. The 2015-16 event made 2016 the “hottest year on record” at the time—and that record was broken in 2025.

Global climate bomb: Australian wildfires, South American floods, Asian droughts

The impact patterns of El Niño are quite clear. The stronger the intensity, the more severe the effects:

• Australia and Southeast Asia: rainfall sharply decreases and droughts intensify, with wildfire risks soaring. Australia’s 2019-20 “Black Summer” wildfires started under a weak El Niño background; if a Super El Niño occurs, conditions would be even more severe.
• West Coast of South America: Peru, Ecuador, and other areas will face heavy rain and destructive floods. Peru’s 2017 “coastal El Niño” caused more than 100 deaths and losses of billions of dollars.
• North America: California could see heavy rain and landslides and mudslides. Winters in the southern United States tend to be colder and wetter, while the north is warmer.
• East Africa and India: rainfall patterns get disrupted, which could affect the food security of hundreds of millions of people.
• Atlantic hurricanes: El Niño phenomena usually suppress the formation of Atlantic hurricanes (since increased upper-level wind shear is unfavorable for hurricane development), but NOAA warns that “even if the total number of hurricanes decreases, a catastrophe still occurs if strong hurricanes make landfall.”

Chain reactions on the economy and commodity markets

El Niño is not only a meteorological event, but also a systemic risk for the global economy. Historical experience shows that Super El Niño can transmit to financial markets through the following routes:

Rising prices of agricultural products: El Niño often leads to reduced palm oil production in Southeast Asia, a decline in sugar output in India, and poor wheat harvests in Australia. During the 1997-98 Super El Niño, international sugar prices rose by more than 50%.

Surging energy demand: El Niño typically makes winters in the Northern Hemisphere warmer and summers hotter, increasing electricity demand. If stacked with summer heatwaves, power markets could face extreme pressure. Countries like Japan and India that rely on imported liquefied natural gas (LNG) will be hit first.

Increased insurance claim pressure: Super El Niño comes with extreme events such as floods, wildfires, and hurricanes, which may leave the global reinsurance market facing insurance claim bills totaling hundreds of billions of dollars. In 2025, global natural disaster insurance losses already exceeded $140 billion, and 2026-27 could set new highs again.

Supply chain disruptions: Rainfall patterns related to El Niño can affect water levels in the Panama Canal. If canal throughput declines, global shipping costs could rise again, repeating the 2023 canal crisis.

The Secretary-General of the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) has publicly called on governments to “not wait until disasters happen to take action.” They should build early warning systems in advance, stockpile emergency resources, and develop contingency plans for vulnerable sectors such as agriculture, water resources, and public health. NOAA’s next ENSO diagnostic report will be released on July 9, at which time there will be clearer guidance on forecast directions.

This article is sourced from reports by NOAA Climate Prediction Center, The Guardian, and BBC, and compiled and translated by Dongqu Editor Flip.