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Goldman Sachs: Hong Kong stock market expected to face over 2 trillion yuan unlock wave

MarsBitNews
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Mars Finance News: On June 15, Goldman Sachs said that as IPO lock-up periods gradually expire, the Hong Kong market may see approximately $274 billion (about HKD 2.13 trillion) in additional share supply over the next 12 months, and it expects strong stock demand to absorb this inflow. Goldman Sachs’ report noted that dual demand from passive index funds and southbound funds forms an important liquidity buffer, effectively easing the selling pressure brought about by the release of locked-up shares. Historical experience shows that within 3 to 6 months after the unlock, stock prices typically see a mild decline of 4% to 7%, while returns diverge significantly. The short-term performance after the unlock is mainly determined by the proportion of unlocked shares to total share capital, whereas the medium-term returns are structurally driven by the proportion of freely tradable shares after the unlock and the stock’s performance prior to the unlock. Companies with a higher proportion of cornerstone holdings—especially those with domestic cornerstone investors—often face greater selling pressure after the lock-up period expires. (Jin10)
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