The market just surged past 65,000, and the whole market is shouting "bull return," but I want to pour a bucket of cold water on it.

Is the global asset frenzy over?

Oil prices plummeted, gold broke through $4,300, the Nikkei index first dropped below 69,000 points, South Korea's stock market triggered circuit breakers for the sixth consecutive day, and Bitcoin broke through $65,000... Over 90k traders got liquidated.

This isn't a simulated trading game; this is the scene of the entire world rushing in to buy in this morning.

Why? Because the US-Iran negotiations finally reached a result—the memorandum of understanding was finalized, the Strait of Hormuz will reopen within 30 days, the US will suspend sanctions on Iranian oil, the UK, France, Germany, and Italy simultaneously announced sanctions relief, and $24 billion of Iranian assets are partially unfrozen. One of the rare "sudden peace" moments in history, and it happened just before the Federal Reserve's rate decision.

If you're in Middle Eastern stocks, you might already be making a fortune; if you're long in Europe, you might have doubled your money; if you've profited from previous war dividends, you're probably cursing right now.

While global financial markets celebrate "peace," have you ever wondered—who is the real winner in this?

You think this is the end? The real bombs are still ahead.

Let me break it down for you.

The US and Iran have signed the "final" text, Iran's Mehr News Agency disclosed 14 protocol details overnight, demanding the Strait reopen within 30 days, halting sanctions on Iranian oil, the US and allies promise at least $300 billion in reconstruction plans. Iran will not develop nuclear weapons, and nuclear talks will continue within 60 days.

Trump was tweeting just a second ago, claiming "Iran no longer seeks nuclear weapons"; then, the next moment, media reports that Iran's foreign minister said the memorandum might be signed in the coming days, but the timing is uncertain.

Did you understand that?

Even the signing time isn't firmly set; both sides are still throwing smoke screens at each other.

You see Trump say, "We are closer to peace than ever before," and that's true—but he didn't tell you how many missiles and cross-border drones stand between "closer to peace" and "real peace."

The most provocative part is that Israel hasn't signed yet.

The main parties signing the ceasefire are the US and Iran, but don't forget, Israel's biggest actor—Netanyahu—hasn't signed anything. And the agreement states "all frontlines cease fire," including Lebanon. But Israel isn't bound by this. If Israel continues attacking Hezbollah in Lebanon, will Iran be forced to intervene?

If Iran intervenes, can the Strait of Hormuz reopen in 30 days?

Remember what Iran said a few days before the ceasefire—"Iran will not compromise on red lines; the negotiation process has been delayed by conflicting signals from the US."

These mines are buried under the strait. 20% of the world's oil will have to pass through again, and after 30 days, what awaits you isn't glamorous cargo ships passing freely, but Iran possibly charging tolls. The US advocates free passage; Iran wants to collect "management fees"—one for free transit, the other for regulated transit. Their concepts are not aligned—who will pay the bill then?

And if there’s any skirmish, oil prices, which just rebounded from $80, will be pushed back into triple digits.

What about the Fed? On June 18, Waller's first rate decision is imminent. Oil prices are cheap, inflation is under control, the Fed can breathe a sigh of relief, and the probability of rate cuts is rising, which is good news for cryptocurrencies. But what if subsequent implementation goes wrong? Iran demands half of the unfrozen funds to be available before negotiations, will the US delay? If one side backtracks, the second phase of negotiations might collapse before it even begins. Then oil prices will spike again, and the market's optimistic script will turn into tragedy.

So,

The agreement is signed, but that doesn't mean it won't collapse. The market may run in today but could run out tomorrow.

This rebound isn't driven by fundamentals improving but by liquidity being priced in early. Whether liquidity will truly loosen depends on four things happening simultaneously: Iran opening the strait in 30 days, Israel not causing trouble, the US thawing funds on schedule, and no skirmishes within 60 days—judge for yourself the probability of all four happening at once.

If you're in a car, don't get carried away by the frenzy—reduce leverage. If you're on the sidelines, the show hasn't reached Act 3 yet.

The real "US-Iran second half" just started its countdown.

Do you think the US-Iran agreement can officially take effect on the 19th? After oil prices dropped 5% from the high, are you still willing to go long on crude? Share your positions in the comments.