$RIF 24 hours up 29%, but do you know how many people got liquidated when the Federal Reserve scared the US stock market overnight? What you see is the price soaring, I see the on-chain and macro tearing apart.

First, hard data: The Federal Reserve's May meeting minutes just said "inflation is stickier than expected," and the S&P 500 immediately plunged 0.8%, the dollar index soared to 105.2. Gold also fell 0.5%, and crude oil dropped 1.2% — all traditional safe-haven assets are dodging hawkish signals. Meanwhile, Bitcoin only dropped 0.3% at that moment, then RIF surged independently, and this divergence is professionally called "95th percentile anomaly."
In my model, the 5-minute rolling correlation between RIF and US stocks plummeted from 0.6 to 0.1, completely decoupled. Why? Because the number of active on-chain wallets for RIF exploded by 42% in the past 48 hours, and DeFi protocol TVL shot up to $170 million. You know what that means — someone is using real money to harvest retail traders in the macro market.
Now I entered at 0.1401, with a stop-loss at 0.1250 (below is the dense liquidation zone within 24 hours), first target 0.1600, second target 0.1800, only 5% position, no leverage. Because if the non-farm payrolls data on Friday exceeds expectations (market expects 180k new jobs, an unexpected result could be deadly), RIF might retrace to 0.10 or even 0.09 within three days. Remember: macro is a hidden arrow, on-chain is an obvious card. When they clash, are you following the news to chase highs and sell lows, or following capital flows to catch short-term gains?
My style is: I don’t follow the crowd shouting signals, I only look for certainty in abnormal data. The key to this battle is 12 hours before the non-farm payrolls report. Don’t just look at the charts — watch the real-time fluctuations of US stock futures, see how the federal funds rate futures are priced, that’s what truly determines whether RIF is charging forward or falling into a trap.