6.15 SOL Market Outlook: Rebound is Difficult to Change the Downward Trend, Maintaining a Mainly Short Position

$SOL
SOL current price is about 71, with a slight rebound of 2.8% over the past 24 hours, following the oversold recovery trend of the market. The rebound elasticity is slightly stronger than ETH, but it has not broken out of the downward structure. The independent upward logic is lacking. Core conclusion: in the short term, it is only a technical rebound; the medium-term downtrend has not been reversed. Dense trapped positions above and ongoing selling pressure suppress the price. Operation-wise, stick to mainly short positions, with light low-cost buying as a supplement. Strictly avoid chasing highs.

Entry: around 71.5-73, with a support at 75, watch for 67.5-66.

Core fundamentals: Selling pressure continues to be released, institutional sentiment weakens.

ETF capital inflow has stagnated, institutional sentiment is turning cautious.
Solana spot ETF experienced net inflow against the trend in May, but after June, the momentum of capital quickly diminished. On June 12, net inflow was zero, with a total net outflow of about 128.7k SOL. Institutional funds shifted from active positioning to waiting, lacking new capital to support, making the rebound difficult to sustain.

Multiple selling pressures stack up, supply-side pressure persists.
The legacy of FTX bankruptcy continues to be unlocked and sold, with about 200k SOL recently released from pledge and transferred to exchanges. Monthly batch unlocks form long-term supply pressure.

At the beginning of June, long-term holders sold off heavily, with addresses holding over 155 days reducing net positions by 910k SOL in a week. Although there was a slight rebound recently, market confidence has already shown structural loosening.

SOL strategies of listed companies sold 65k SOL for debt repayment, further increasing short-term selling pressure.

On-chain fundamentals are weak, ecological support is insufficient.

Solana DeFi total value locked (TVL) continues to decline, with about 15% drop over 30 days. On-chain transaction activity has decreased, and DEX market share is below the 60-day average. Although RWA tokenization and Meme coin sectors still have some localized heat, they are not enough to drive the overall ecosystem out of an independent trend. SOL’s price movement is highly correlated with BTC, with a 72-hour correlation coefficient of 0.91, lacking independent upward logic. #比特币反弹