Core tone: Daily chart shows a large bearish trend, low-volume rebound; medium-term trend remains unchanged, short-term oscillation leans bullish, but high levels still favor short positions.
1. Trend Structure (D1)

• Moving Averages: Price well below 50/200 MA (73k/77k), clearly bearish medium-term; short-term trading below 20 EMA (66,700), indicating short-term bullish and medium-term bearish.

• Pattern: Retraced from the May high of 82,500, with a decline of about 22% this month, entering a technical bear market; currently oscillating and consolidating between 62k–67k.

• RSI(14): ≈41, neutral leaning bearish, no overbought or oversold signals.

• MACD: Below zero line, green bars converging, weakening bearish momentum, no golden cross, rebound is not a reversal.

• Volume: 24-hour volume is 45% below 30-day average, no volume-backed rebound, sustainability is poor.

2. Key Support/Resistance (Short-term core)

Resistance (Shorting zone)

• R1: 66,500–67k (intraday strong resistance, 20 EMA)

• R2: 68,000–70,000 (cluster of trapped longs, 30 MA)

• R3: 72,000 (Fibonacci 38.2%, strong resistance)

Support (Longing zone)

• S1: 63,500–64,000 (intraday key support, multiple bounces)

• S2: 62k–62,500 (200-week MA, strong historical support)

• S3: 59,500–60,500 (strong support after breakdown, bottom of this decline)

3. 4H Trading Strategy (Can be executed directly)

1) Short positions (main strategy, trend-following)

• Entry: 66,500–67,000 with resistance, bearish candle/long upper shadow

• Stop-loss: above 67,500 (above R2)

• Take profit: 64,000 → 62,500 (partial exits)

• Position size: ≤20% (before FOMC meeting)

2) Long positions (secondary strategy, rebound)

• Entry: 62,000–62,500 with stabilization, bullish candle/long lower shadow

• Stop-loss: below 61,500 (below S2)

• Take profit: 65,000 → 66,500 (exit on resistance)

• Position size: ≤10% (weak rebound, light position)

3) Wait-and-see (neutral zone)

• Range: 64,000–66,500, oscillate without breaking, avoid heavy positions.

4. Risk Control and Macro Rules

• Position size: Before the June 16 FOMC, single trade ≤20%, total position ≤30%.

• Breakout rules:

◦ Volume breakout above 67,000 → stop short, wait or lightly add longs.

◦ Volume breakdown below 62,000 → stop long, trend-following add short.

• Macro: ETF fund flows fluctuate, inflation concerns persist, rebound height limited, strictly avoid chasing longs.

5. Today's One Sentence Summary

Short at 66,500–67,000, long at 62,000–62,500, watch in the middle; no bullish reversal unless above 67,500, no deep decline unless #我的Gate交易时刻 below 61,500.

BTC2.40%

View Original

This page may contain third-party content, which is provided for information purposes only (not representations/warranties) and should not be considered as an endorsement of its views by Gate, nor as financial or professional advice. See Disclaimer for details.

1 Likes