6.15 Bitcoin Market Outlook

$BTC
Bitcoin current price is approximately 65,400, with a 24-hour increase of about 1.2%, representing a weak rebound after a previous sharp decline. Market sentiment is in extreme fear, with the Crypto Fear and Greed Index at only 18; at the same time, market trading volume has shrunk by about 45% compared to earlier, with low capital participation, indicating insufficient rebound momentum.

Entry: 655-659 range for accumulation, watch for 665, look at 635-620.

Core fundamentals and news:
Short-term rebound catalyst: Trump’s statement promoting the US-Iran peace agreement, easing geopolitical risks, slightly restoring risk assets; combined with the daily net inflow of $85.9 million into spot Bitcoin ETFs in the US stock market, providing short-term capital support.

Institutional sentiment remains cautious: Institutional funds are showing divergence, with Grayscale ETF still experiencing a net outflow of $31.64 million, and no sustained inflow trend has formed; mainstream institutions tend to stay on the sidelines.

Medium- to long-term structural pressure:
Bitcoin’s total network hash rate continues to decline, with mining difficulty decreasing by 10.09% on June 14, the 11th largest single-day drop in history; many listed mining companies are shifting strategies toward AI data center construction. Miners are daily inflowing 10k to 12k BTC into exchanges, with selling pressure remaining high.

Market funds are continuously rotating into AI sectors, and overall liquidity in the crypto market is under pressure, which is one of the core factors suppressing the market in the medium term.

Macro environment: The Fed’s rate cut expectations are further delayed, with some officials signaling a hawkish stance, putting downward pressure on the valuation of global risk assets.

Technical analysis:
On the daily chart, the price remains in a clear downtrend, trading below the 20-day and 50-day moving averages, with a bearish moving average alignment; RSI is at a low level but has not formed a bullish divergence, combined with significantly insufficient rebound volume. The current market is characterized as a weak rebound during a downtrend, with no trend reversal signals yet. #比特币反弹