U.S.-Iran Peace Agreement! Bitcoin surges past $65.7k, crude oil sharply drops below $81

The United States and Iran announced they have reached a peace agreement, and the Strait of Hormuz is about to reopen. Bitcoin jumped 2% to $65.7k on the news, WTI crude oil fell nearly 5%, and U.S. stock futures rose in sync.
(Background summary: A draft peace agreement between the U.S. and Iran was leaked! U.S. military withdrawal in exchange for “unblocking the Strait of Hormuz,” crude oil plunged sharply and fell below $89)
(Additional background: A leaked U.S.-Iran negotiation memorandum: the Strait of Hormuz to reopen within 30 days, Iran to unfreeze $24 billion, and oil sanctions to be halted)

Table of Contents

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• Market chain reaction
• Transmission chain from crude oil to Bitcoin
• Next key points to watch

On the 14th, the U.S. and Iran announced they had reached a peace agreement. Both sides agreed to end hostilities and reopen the Strait of Hormuz, and the official signing ceremony will be held on Friday in Switzerland.

Bitcoin surged 2% immediately, climbing to $65,700 in the past 24 hours, the highest level since the June opening crash. WTI crude oil prices also fell nearly 5%, sliding to below $81 per barrel, marking a new low in about two months.

Market chain reaction

Nasdaq 100 futures rose 1.5%, and S&P 500 futures gained 0.9%. The drop in oil prices directly reduced inflation expectations, injecting “liquidity optimism” into the market.

The logic behind this upswing is clear: the U.S.-Iran peace agreement reduces Middle East supply risks → crude oil prices fall → inflation pressure eases → the Federal Reserve has more room to cut interest rates → risk assets (including Bitcoin) benefit.

Transmission chain from crude oil to Bitcoin

The Strait of Hormuz is a vital choke point for global crude oil shipping, with about 17 million barrels of oil passing through it each day. After reopening, not only did oil prices drop on the spot, but market expectations for inflation were also revised downward at the same time.

As a risk asset and an inflation hedge, Bitcoin quickly tracked the move up alongside the decline in oil prices. Chain data shows that Bitcoin’s on-chain trading volume increased by 8% within 24 hours, indicating that capital is rapidly flowing back in.

Next key points to watch

Market attention turns to the signing ceremony in Switzerland on Friday. If the agreement is implemented smoothly, the Strait of Hormuz is expected to resume full operations within the next 1–2 weeks, and crude oil prices could fall further into the $75 range.

If Bitcoin holds steady at $65.7k, the next checkpoint is the $67,000 resistance level on June 10. Conversely, if the agreement falls apart or oil prices rebound, Bitcoin could retest support at $64,500.