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#我的Gate交易时刻 Finally reached an agreement, will there be a reversal? Will the wolf come again?
Waking up to the news, the US and Iran have reached an agreement, which will reduce the likelihood of "Federal Reserve rate hikes," and increase liquidity in the US stock market, global stock markets, and cryptocurrency markets. This is a positive development, especially for gold, commodities, and other assets that have been under pressure due to rate hike expectations. Today’s market will definitely rebound strongly. It’s also good news for the tech-focused crypto market, so we can continue the celebration and dance~
But after so long of US-Iran negotiations, there are always reversals. How reliable is this? Could it reverse again? Personally, I think it’s reliable within this week because:
1. Not only does the US say a peace agreement has been reached
2. The key is that Iran also confirms the ceasefire memorandum has been agreed upon
3. The "oil prices" in the US-Iran sentiment observation chart have fallen.
The memorandum will be signed this Friday, followed by a 60-day negotiation period, so it’s unlikely to reverse this week. If it does reverse, it would be around the time the 60 days are about to end, but that’s mid-August, not far from Trump’s mid-term elections. Moreover, the conflict has lasted nearly four months, and continuing like this would be very unfavorable for US inflation and the mid-term elections.
From Iran’s side, it also means that the marginal effect of bargaining chips diminishes as time goes on. Both sides should moderate their actions...