From Dow Theory, Chan Theory, Elliott Wave Theory, Volume-Price Relationship, Order Flow, and Price Action Analysis of BTC Short-term Trends

$BTC ‌1. Dow Theory
Main trend (1-hour level): The medium-term downtrend from the high point of 82,448 on May 10 is experiencing a critical turning point. After a panic crash to 59,095 on June 5, a strong rebound occurred from June 6–8, reaching a high of 64,184. On June 9, "gap opening, decline, and heavy volume crash" from 63,050 straight down to 60,740, then in the early morning of June 10, continued decline to 60,727 (new low since the rebound), but in the afternoon, a shocking V-shaped rebound to 62,794. From June 11–13, continued upward attack to 64,722, and on June 14, an extreme move of "morning oscillation, afternoon plunge, and late surge" occurred. After opening at 64,415, the market oscillated, briefly surged to 64,682 at 01:15, then started a relentless decline. At 04:00, broke below 64,500; at 04:45, fell to 64,310; at 06:30, plunged to 64,212; at 07:00, down to 64,205; at 09:30, broke below 64,000; at 10:30, dropped to 63,643 (intraday low). In the afternoon, weak consolidation in the 63,600–64,000 range. At 14:30, a terrifying crash from 64,122 to 63,908; at 17:30, down to 63,725; at 18:00, to 63,691, market plunged into extreme panic. But at 21:15, a shocking surge from 64,070 to 64,742; at 21:30, up to 65,236; at 21:45, hit a high of 65,608; at 22:00, retreated to 65,078; at 23:00, again pushed up to 65,709, then slightly retreated to 65,514 at close. Although the medium-term downtrend has not been fully reversed, the massive surge at the close on June 14 shows the bulls' power is extremely formidable.
Short-term trend (15-minute level): The move on June 14 was an extreme reversal from "hell to heaven." The short-term trend instantly shifted from "steep decline" to "steep rise."
Dow conclusion: The main trend remains downward, but the downward momentum has significantly weakened. The short-term trend has reversed from "steep decline" to "steep rise." The huge surge at the end of June 14 broke above the June 13 high of 64,722, creating a new high of 65,709 since the current rebound, and the market has returned to an extremely bullish state. The key resistance zone is 66,000–67,000. If the price can break through this level effectively, the short-term downtrend will be confirmed to reverse; if the rebound is blocked at 65,500 and falls below 64,000, the rebound ends, and the downtrend continues, targeting 62,500–61,000.
2. Chan Theory
Pattern Structure: On the 15-minute chart, multiple valid top and bottom fractals are marked.
Top Fractal: The top fractal appeared at the end of June 14 with a shocking surge from around 64,000 to 65,500–66,000, showing extremely strong bullish power.
Bottom Fractal: The bottom fractal also appeared at the end of June 14 with a shocking surge from around 63,600 to 64,000–65,500, indicating very strong bullish willingness.
Bi (Pen) and Line Segments: From the bottom fractal at 63,414 to the top fractal at 64,722 (June 13, 21:30), forming a very strong upward stroke (blue line), with a rise of about 1,308. Then from 64,722 to the bottom fractal at 63,643 (June 14, 10:30), forming a downward stroke (brown line), with a decline of about 1,079, about 82.5% of the previous upward stroke, indicating strong bearish force. Next, from 63,643 to the top fractal at 65,709 (June 14, 23:00), forming an extremely terrifying upward stroke (blue line), with a rise of about 2,066, far exceeding the previous upward stroke, showing extremely strong bullish power. Currently, starting from the top fractal at 65,709, the price is constructing a new initial downward stroke, with the latest low at 65,227.
Central Zone: In the 63,000–65,000 range, from June 11–14, K-lines are densely interwoven, forming a new central zone in Chan Theory. The current price of 65,514 has broken above the upper boundary of the central zone, indicating an accelerated upward phase after breaking through the zone. In the 60,500–62,000 range, the dense K-line interweaving on June 9–10 has formed a downward central zone in Chan Theory, but the V-shaped rebound on June 10 afternoon plus the strong attack from June 11–14 have completely broken through this zone.
Chan Theory conclusion: The upward stroke's force (+2,066) is extremely terrifying and far exceeds the previous upward stroke (+1,308), showing that bulls are fully dominant. Currently, the market is in a high-level oscillation stage after extending the upward stroke, with no end signal yet. Short-term focus on whether an effective top fractal can form near 65,709; if formed, the upward stroke may end. If the price directly breaks through 66,000, the upward stroke extends, risking an attack toward 67,000–68,000.
3. Elliott Wave Theory
Based on the 1-hour wave structure, the trend since the high of 82,448 on May 10 is divided into a typical "five-wave decline + ABC rebound" pattern:
Wave 1 (Crash): From 82,448 down to 75,658 (May 26), about -6,790.
Wave 2 (Rebound): From 75,658 up to 78,002 (May 26), about +2,344.
Wave 3 (Main decline): From 78,002 down to 66,703 (June 2), about -11,299.
Wave 4 (Rebound): From 66,703 up to 74,153 (May 31), about +7,450.
Wave 5 (Final crash): From 74,153 down to 59,095 (June 5), about -15,058.
A Wave (Rebound): From 59,095 up to 64,184 (June 8, 15:00), about +5,089.
B Wave (Correction): From 64,184 down to 60,727 (June 10, 09:00), about -3,457. B wave's correction is about 67.9% of A wave, a typical deep correction.
C Wave (Expansion): From 60,727 up to 65,709 (June 14, 23:00), about +4,982. The current magnitude of C wave is about 97.9% of A wave, nearly equal in length. If C wave continues to extend, the target is about 67,000–68,000 (C wave is 1.618 times A wave).
Wave conclusion: The market is currently in the ABC rebound C wave expansion phase. C wave's force is extremely terrifying, nearly equal to A wave, and B wave has not broken the starting point of A wave at 59,095, which is a positive signal. If C wave can break through 66,000 and continue upward, the rebound target is 67,000–68,000; if C wave is blocked near 66,000 and falls below 64,000, then C wave fails, and a downward impulsive wave begins.
4. Volume-Price Relationship
Overall volume-price features: On June 14, extremely extreme volume-price characteristics appeared. During the morning oscillation and decline, volume was relatively shrinking; during the afternoon crash, huge volume accompanied the decline; during the late surge, even larger volume appeared. The alternating pattern of volume expansion during declines and rises indicates fierce battle between bulls and bears, but the bulls' power completely crushed the bears at the close.
Key volume-price nodes:
- 01:00 on June 14: A large bullish candle with volume of 126 million, from 64,529 to 64,600, body 71, confirming bulls' attack early.
- 04:45 on June 14: A huge bearish candle with volume of 712 million, from 64,362 to 64,310, body 52, confirming panic selling.
- 06:30 on June 14: An extremely terrifying huge bearish candle with volume of 391 million, from 64,356 to 64,212, body 144, confirming concentrated panic selling.
- 10:30 on June 14: A huge bearish candle with volume of 712 million, from 64,627 to 64,480, body 147, confirming continued panic selling.
- 12:45 on June 14: An extremely terrifying huge bearish candle with volume of 733 million, from 64,346 to 64,266, body 80, confirming extreme panic selling.
- 14:30 on June 14: A terrifying huge bearish candle with volume of 866 million, from 64,122 to 63,908, body 214, confirming cliff-like crash.
- 17:30 on June 14: A large bearish candle with volume of 575 million, from 63,866 to 63,725, body 141, confirming continued panic selling.
- 18:00 on June 14: An extremely terrifying huge bearish candle with volume of 175 million, from 63,708 to 63,691, body 17, confirming extreme panic.
- 21:15 on June 14: An astonishing huge bullish candle with volume of 743 million, from 64,070 to 64,742, body 672, confirming bulls' explosive power and panic buying.
- 21:30 on June 14: An extremely terrifying huge bullish candle with volume of 888 million, from 64,774 to 65,236, body 462, confirming continued bullish explosion.
- 21:45 on June 14: An astonishing huge bullish candle with volume of 1B, from 65,258 to 65,608, body 350, confirming bulls' extreme power.
- 23:00 on June 14: A terrifying huge bullish candle with volume of 141 million, from 65,391 to 65,709, body 318, confirming bulls' renewed eruption.
Recent 10 fifteen-minute candles: From 65,531 oscillating back to 65,514, volume shows decreasing consolidation, market awaits direction in the 65,200–65,700 range.
Volume-Price conclusion: During the June 14 crash, huge volume accompanied panic selling; but during the late surge, even larger volume confirmed bulls' dominance. The current high-level consolidation with shrinking volume indicates both sides are resting. Key observation points: If a pullback to 64,500–65,000 with decreasing volume confirms support, C wave continues; if volume increases upon breaking below 64,000, C wave fails.
5. Order Flow
Volume Profile: The recent 3 days' volume control point (POC) is at 63,471. This is the area with the densest trading between bulls and bears, forming the most important value zone center. The current price of 65,514 is far above POC, showing a positive divergence between market value and actual price, with bulls dominating.
Current position analysis: Price at 65,514 is about 2,043 above POC, in the above-value zone with a large deviation. In order flow theory, breaking above POC indicates short-term buyers are fully in control, and the market is shifting from discount to premium. The current price is moving toward a higher value zone, but resistance appears near 66,000.
High volume nodes (HVN):
- 65,000–66,000: Resistance HVN (formed after the surge at the end of June 14, currently creating resistance)
- 63,000–65,000: Core support HVN (dense trading zone on June 13–14, current support)
- 62,000–63,000: Lower support HVN (dense trading zone on early June 11–12)
- 60,500–61,500: Strong support HVN (massive support zone after the crash on June 10)
Delta analysis (bottom subgraph): Delta estimates show that during the crash at 14:30, Delta sharply turned negative (-1.5 billion), confirming active selling dominance. During the late surge at 21:15–21:45, Delta sharply turned positive (+5 billion), confirming active buying at the end. Currently, Delta MA12 has recovered from negative to deep positive, indicating very strong buying power and complete dominance over sellers.
Order flow conclusion: Price breaking above POC 63,471 indicates short-term buyers are fully in control, market is in deep premium state. Resistance at 66,000 and 66,500 are key HVNs; if Delta remains positive with volume breakout at these levels, expect an attack toward 67,000. If Delta remains negative and price falls below 64,000, C wave fails.
6. Price Action
Support and Resistance levels:
- Strong resistance: 82,448 (high point), 78,002 (May 26 rebound high), 74,153 (May 31 rebound high), 65,709 (June 14 rebound high)
- Key resistance: 66,000, 65,500, 65,000, 64,722 (June 13 rebound high), 64,340 (June 12 rebound high)
- Key support: 64,000, 63,500 (June 14 crash low), 63,000, 62,500 (June 12 consolidation lower boundary), 62,759 (June 12 morning low), 60,727 (June 10 crash low), 59,095 (June 5 crash low)
K-line patterns:
- June 14, 14:30: A large bearish candle with an ultra-long lower shadow (body 214, shadow 214) near 63,908, showing panic selling followed by buy support, forming a "hammer" bullish pattern.
- June 14, 17:30: A large bearish candle with an ultra-long lower shadow (body 141, shadow 141) near 63,725, indicating strong buy support after panic selling, forming a "hammer" bullish pattern.
- June 14, 21:15: A large bullish candle with a long lower shadow (body 672, shadow 0), from 64,070 to 64,742, showing a strong V-shaped reversal, forming a "bullish engulfing" pattern.
- June 14, 21:30: A large bullish candle with a long lower shadow (body 462, shadow 0), from 64,774 to 65,236, indicating continued bullish strength.
- June 14, 21:45: A large bullish candle with a long upper shadow (body 350, shadow 0), from 65,258 to 65,608, showing bulls' power reaching an extreme.
- June 14, 23:00: A large bullish candle with a long upper shadow (body 318, shadow 0), from 65,391 to 65,709, indicating another bullish surge.
Trend structure:
- Short-term: Running in a steep upward channel (connecting 60,727, 63,643, 64,070)
- Mid-term: The downtrend since May 10 at 82,448 is experiencing a critical turning point, with a new upward trend forming.
Price action conclusion: In the short term, the market is in a high-level oscillation after a massive surge. 66,000 is the dividing line: breaking above confirms an upward trend targeting 67,000–68,000; resistance at 66,000 may cause a pullback to test support at 65,000–64,500.
Overall assessment:
Dow Theory indicates the main trend remains downward but with significantly weakened downward momentum; the short-term trend has reversed from "steep decline" to "steep rise," with key levels at 66,000 (up) and 64,000 (down). Chan Theory shows the upward stroke's force (+2,066) is extremely terrifying and far exceeds the previous upward stroke (+1,308), currently in a high-level oscillation after extension. Elliott Wave confirms a completed five-wave decline, with ABC rebound and C wave unfolding (+4,982), nearly equal to A wave, targeting 67,000–68,000. Volume-price signals show a massive volume during the crash and an even larger volume during the late surge, with bulls crushing bears. Order flow shows POC at 63,471, with price breaking into a deep premium zone, and Delta MA12 in positive territory. Price action shows "hammer," "bullish engulfing," and "shooting star" patterns, with a highly bullish bias but heavy resistance at 66,000.
Short-term strategy suggestions:
- Bullish scenario: If price shows decreasing volume with support at 64,500–65,000, and a bottom fractal forms with Delta turning positive, consider going long with targets at 66,000 → 67,000, stop-loss at 63,800.
- Bearish scenario: If a top fractal forms near 66,000–66,500 with volume increasing and confirms C wave failure, consider shorting with targets at 64,500 → 63,500, stop-loss at 66,800.
Current state: Price at 65,514 is in a high-level oscillation after a massive surge, with extreme bullish bias but resistance at 66,000. Wait for a pullback to 64,500–65,000 to confirm support before considering long positions, or wait for a break above 66,000 to confirm trend reversal before chasing the trend.