Good morning, all investment banks 🥛✨

【Intraday Key Highlights｜Monday, 6.15】

U.S.-Iran Ceasefire—This is actually happening

Iran’s top National Security Council officially confirmed early: Iran-U.S. ceasefire memorandum of understanding has been reached

This Friday (6.19), Switzerland will sign the "Islamabad Memorandum," followed by a 60-day formal negotiation period (nuclear issues + path to comprehensive sanctions relief)

Trump has authorized: lifting the maritime blockade on Iran, free passage through the Strait of Hormuz, and resuming demining and freight operations

Market initial reaction

Crude oil dropped sharply → WTI briefly down by over 5% at the open, the energy artery that had been constricted for over three and a half months is finally opening

Gold opened high and rose (the safe-haven premium hasn't fully dissipated, but the logic is shifting → from "war premium" to "loose monetary + fiscal expansion" pricing)

But this is far from being "settled"

The agreement text will only be announced after signing on the 19th, and the sequence of implementation (funds unfreezing → ceasefire verification → sanctions relief) is all points of contention

On the 14th, Israel also conducted airstrikes on southern Beirut, and Tehran once issued tough words—Netanyahu doesn’t want Trump to take this prize

The 60-day negotiation window = a 60-day fragile period, anyone violating will face backlash, and market volatility will just continue in a different way

In short: the war premium in oil prices is being exhausted, and gold’s safe-haven move isn’t finished. Today, don’t chase highs or sell lows; wait until the 19th when the text is released to re-anchor.