$ON Just surged 17%, but last night’s spike hit 0.0757. Is this a shakeout or a sign of distribution before selling off?

【Source】Latest data from CoinMarketCap: $ON rose from a low of 0.0757 to 0.0909 within 24 hours, with a trading volume of 3.7M, up 16.87%. There’s no clear positive news; it’s purely short covering + small-cap capital rotation.
【Translate into trading logic】1. Currently at 0.0890, right below the 0.091 resistance. If today’s volume breaks through 0.091, the next resistance is at 0.095. But note, the 24h trading volume is only 3.7M — low liquidity in altcoins means large orders can directly break through. 2. That spike to 0.0757 last night indicates funds bought at the low. Now pushing up to around 0.09, the dealer’s cost basis is roughly between 0.077-0.08. They’re currently sitting on about 11% unrealized profit and could sell to take profits at any time. 3. If this is the first rally after building a position, it usually consolidates and shakes out before breaking through. But think carefully: at 0.09, there’s about 30% room to the previous high of 0.12, while only 20% from the bottom at 0.07 — risk-reward isn’t favorable.
【Trading suggestions】- No position: don’t chase the rally. Wait for a pullback near 0.085 to add a small long, with a stop-loss below 0.082, target 0.095. - With position: if it reaches around 0.091 with high volume and stagnation (e.g., three consecutive doji candles on 15-minute charts), cut half of your position. If it drops back to 0.085, buy again. - Tonight, if it falls below 0.086, stop-loss immediately. This rebound has used up most of its momentum; the 3.7M volume can’t support a sustained rally.
【Interactive poll】Do you think this is a true breakout after shakeout, or a rebound before distribution? A. Shakeout over, next week push to 0.12 B. Dealer’s trap, return to 0.08 tomorrow morning C. I don’t understand, waiting to see the show
Has the news already been priced in? The intraday gains are accounted for, but on the daily chart, it hasn’t broken previous highs with volume yet, so short-term there may still be residual momentum. Only a break above 0.095 would fully activate the trend; otherwise, it’s a one-day rally.