## 🪨 Gold Morning Report | June 15th, Monday

##
| Indicator | Value | Change |
|:---|:---|:---|
| International Spot | $4,210/oz | -0.22% |
| Intraday Range | $4,179 — $4,234 | — |
| Shanghai Gold T+D | 919.5 yuan/g | -1.22% |
| Water Bead Recycling/Sales | 900/957 yuan/g | Flat over the weekend |
| Distance from ATH ($5,627) | **-25.2%** | Rebounded 4.6% from June 11 low of $4,024 |
| 10Y U.S. Treasury | 4.5-4.6% | Staying high |

### Major Events Last Night/Weekend

- **FOMC meetings on Tuesday and Wednesday this week** (6/16-17), Waller hosts the first policy meeting, market expects no change, focus on statement wording and dot plot
- Market has completely dismissed the expectation of rate cuts this year, **probability of a 25bp hike exceeds 70%** (October/December)
- May CPI YoY 4.2%, a 3-year high; Non-farm payrolls 172k, nearly double expectations
- Citigroup lowered three-month target to $4,000, extreme scenario to $3,500; Goldman Sachs, Deutsche Bank, Morgan Stanley, and Barclays all cut forecasts
- ECB unexpectedly raised rates by 25bp, further breaking global easing expectations
- Global gold ETFs saw outflows of $2 billion in May, COMEX speculative net long positions dropped to the lowest in recent years

### Resistance/Support

| Direction | Price Level | Logic |
|:---|:---|:---|
| Strong Resistance | $4,260-4,280 | Previous dense trading zone + technical suppression |
| Weak Resistance | $4,300 | Psychological round number |
| **Key Support** | **$4,000** | Psychological bottom + tested on 6/11 |
| Strong Support | $3,800 | Citigroup extreme scenario upper bound |

### Strategy

- **Short-term**: Volatile bottoming pattern, avoid heavy positions before FOMC. Buy low and sell high within $4,150-4,280, with strict stop-loss
- **Medium-term**: Wait for two signals—① Substantial easing in Middle East situation leading to falling oil prices ② U.S. inflation genuinely cooling, rate hike expectations easing. Until then, rebounds are mostly technical corrections
- **Long-term**: Central bank gold purchases (turned positive in April) + debt expansion + de-dollarization fundamentals remain intact, but the steepest phase of a bull market has passed, shifting to high-volatility range oscillation

### Key Time Nodes

| Date | Event | Impact |
|:---|:---|:---|
| **6/16-17** | FOMC policy meeting + Waller’s debut | ⭐⭐⭐ Determines short-term direction |
| 6/17 | Dot plot + economic forecasts | Rate hike path pricing |
| 6/18 | BOJ/RBA/SNB/BoE rate decisions | Global #我的Gate交易时刻 monetary policy signals |
| Subsequent | Strait of Hormuz situation | Oil prices → inflation → interest rate chain |

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One sentence: **This week’s FOMC will make or break the trend. If the dot plot signals rate hikes, $4,000 is likely to break again; if dovish, a short-term rebound to $4,300 is expected.**