Miners lose one coin for every coin mined, but long-term holders are becoming increasingly reluctant to sell.

This kind of divergence is the most noteworthy signal currently in Bitcoin.
Bitcoin mining difficulty has just been reduced by 10%, the second largest negative adjustment since 2026.
Surviving miners can mine about 11% more coins per unit of hash power, but at current prices, the overall costs still result in losses.
Miners operating at a loss is a common feature at historical bottoms, but not the only condition.
On the other side, on-chain data shows that long-term holders (holding for over 6 months) have seen their annual inflow to trading platforms drop to the lowest since 2015.
Although short-term panic selling can still occur, the medium- to long-term influence is weakening.
After ETF and institutional entry, the holder structure is changing—old money prefers to hoard rather than sell.
Standard Chartered Bank is now saying "winter is over," citing the upcoming holdings update from Strategy as one of the bottom signals.
But miner losses combined with LTH reluctance to sell do not immediately mean a reversal.
Historically, after such a combination appears, the market often needs one last panic sell-off to clear leverage.
The risk is: if macro liquidity continues to tighten (high US Treasury yields, possible rate hikes by the European Central Bank), miners may be forced to sell beyond LTH’s capacity to absorb.
The bottom is a range, not a point.
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