Thoughts on public blockchains in 2026:

Thoughts on public chains in 2026:

1. The strategy of "controlling inflation + high interest rate deposits + DeFi trifecta + founder memes + our own hyperliquid + crazy OTC sales to liquid funds" is no longer viable.

2. This is not only a problem for Monad and MegaETH, but also for Rise, Fogo, and even N1. The old chains, depending on the situation, Sei and Polygon still seem to be struggling, while most have already given up.

3. Projects incubated on day 1 of public chains still have questionable loyalty, because among the few founders in the industry, options include BNB Chain, Solana, and even Base. Most new chains focus on the public chain foundation’s treasury. Once they raise funds through endorsements and attract the first wave of community users, founders are motivated: 1) to build their own app chains to support valuation, 2) to switch to other chains and compete.

4. As a result, some founders no longer call themselves xx ecosystems, but say xx chains are our "GTM partners."

5. So, ecosystem projects are too weak to support, or too strong and end up backstabbing their sponsors like Lü Bu.

6. The original free-range, neutral public chain development model has basically ended, and the valuation model based on MEV income needs revision (here @LeePima teacher). Today’s public chains are more about carrying a certain level of controllability rather than potential, engaging in fintech within a controllable economic system.

7. Future public chains will be a centralized power structure, top-down dev shops and CVCs, with the main role of the treasury being M&A, engaging in aggressive vertical mergers rather than ecosystem cultivation. In other words, there will no longer be kingmakers like Solana (cc. @mablejiang).

8. In this sense, BNB Chain, Tempo, and Monad are heading in the same direction, just with different resource advantages and regional differences.

9. The final question is: how should we model FDV at this point to speculate accordingly? And since the skill set is entirely geared toward token-selling, money-circling, and economic models that extract fees, the old era’s ticket may no longer fit the new era’s ship.