#我的Gate交易时刻 Understanding SpaceX's Buying Logic in One Go

SpaceX has gone public, causing a global stir, with the topic at full blast. What exactly does this company do? What is its business model? Is it profitable? Where are its advantages? Where are its disadvantages? Where is the certainty? Where is the uncertainty? Where are the risks? Should you buy? Can you buy? When to buy? What will happen after buying? What is the underlying logic? Let’s explore together.
SpaceX is a space exploration technology company headquartered in Texas, USA. Its founder is Elon Musk. Its main businesses are divided into three parts:
Rocket launches, Starlink, and xAI.
The profitable part is rocket launches, which can be understood as space logistics. It is the first company to achieve rocket recovery technology, currently holding over 80% of the global commercial launch market share; next is Starlink, essentially a global space telecommunications network, relying on a large satellite constellation to charge broadband fees to users worldwide and the U.S. military. The money-losing part is xAI, responsible for processing massive amounts of global satellite real-time images, performing orbital-level autonomous driving calculations, and providing computing power for Starlink terminals. But it’s extremely costly— to match or even surpass OpenAI, xAI spends $49.69k each quarter mainly on NVIDIA chips, building super data centers, and paying electricity bills. The future development directions are: short-term dreams to completely disrupt traditional space launches and intercontinental logistics; mid-term dreams to establish computing centers in space; ultimate dreams of colonizing Mars.
So, if this company is to go public, it needs a valuation. Facing such a monster company, Wall Street uses a segmented valuation method. They break down SpaceX: valuing rocket launch as a defense and logistics company; valuing Starlink as a telecom giant; valuing xAI as an internet tech giant like OpenAI or Microsoft; then adding a premium for interstellar colonization.
Finally, they set the price at $135 per share, resulting in the largest IPO in human capital history!
SpaceX (SPCX) IPO information:
Stock code and exchange: SPCX (NASDAQ)
Listing date: June 12, 2026
Fixed IPO price: $135/share
Total shares: approximately 43.67k
Total market cap: $1.77 trillion
Public float in this offering: 29.02k shares. Actual float ratio: 4.2%
Now, if we buy in now, will the stock fall first and then rise, or rise first and then fall before rising again?
First, answer a question: if a company is perfectly certain to be good in every aspect, can ordinary people still buy? In other words, if SpaceX only has rocket and Starlink businesses and is making money, its stock would definitely be inaccessible to the average person. It’s precisely because of the variable xAI that everyone has a chance to participate. It’s these uncertainties that create the multi-faceted nature of capital markets—strength and hype coexist as the norm. To understand how the stock price might move later, first look at whether the $135 valuation is expensive. And yes, it’s very expensive.
From a profit-driven perspective, investment banks charge a one-time fee for buying and selling—they tend to prefer higher valuations. For SpaceX, a higher valuation is more advantageous. Then there are lawyers, who only handle principle-based issues, not the hype premiums. So, from all angles, raising the valuation maximizes everyone’s interests. The only potential victim is retail investors.
On the other hand, SpaceX itself is a great company with a compelling story, plus the almost religious fanaticism around Musk. The unique charm of the founder’s personality makes institutions likely to push the stock price higher.
Even so, if we look at the global market cap rankings, we see that this valuation is still too outrageous—already in the top ten at launch. A slight rise could accidentally surpass Apple. How much room is left? Let’s look at the top ten global market caps:
NVIDIA: $4.969 trillion
Alphabet: $4.367 trillion
Apple: $4.275 trillion
Microsoft: $2.902 trillion
Amazon: $2.566 trillion
TSMC: $2.198 trillion
Broadcom: $1.817 trillion
SpaceX: $1.77 trillion
Saudi Aramco: $1.752 trillion
Tesla: $1.526 trillion
The answer lies in the float. At the first trading, the market’s actual transactable float market cap is only about $25.66k, roughly the size of a mid-cap stock. Since the float accounts for less than 5% of the total shares, over 95% of the shares are held by founders, major shareholders, and executives. Theoretically, a 5% float rising to the sky is plausible. Multiplying the 5% float price by the total shares gives a market cap that’s just a virtual value.
That leaves only one question: can you profit and sell before the 95% of shares are dumped? Theoretically yes, many think so. This brings us to the lock-up periods for major shareholders: starting from day 90, some early investors and small shareholders are unlocked, usually holding 5%-10% of the total shares. If you’re an institution, you might pause trading half a month early, short-sell, and front-run. From day 180, a huge amount of shares from early VCs, institutional investors, and employees will be unlocked—possibly 30%-40% of total shares. Institutions will also likely front-run by about a month. On day 365, Musk and core executives holding over 40%. If they sell, it’s usually a big negative.
So, these 180 days are critical— a chaotic window where anything can happen, no matter how high or absurd the stock price gets.
Having understood these logics, our most probable scenario is: SpaceX’s core business and growth potential are very attractive, plus the worship of Musk, and with the small float ratio, the stock can keep climbing. Institutions will fully exploit retail enthusiasm.
Therefore, the most likely pattern is: initial rise, repeated high-level oscillations, fake breakouts downward, pinning up and down, then further rises, deep corrections, rebounds, then declines until the lock-up period ends.
For retail investors, it’s wise not to participate within these six months. If you do, it should be just for fun, not heavy positions.
For long-term believers who trust SpaceX to monopolize space business and realize grander dreams, and see the current price as just the starting point of the universe, it’s fine— but wait 180 days or even 1-3 years until the major shareholders have sold out, chips have turned over, fundamentals return, and the price has fallen enough before entering. That’s the safer approach. $SPCX