Wu's Weekly Macro Indicators and Analysis: Federal Reserve and Bank of Japan Interest Rate Decisions

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Compilation: GaryMa Wu Talks Blockchain

Summary

Last week, the US-Iran conflict quickly shifted from Strait fire to the signing table; U.S. inflation data remained high; this week features a super central bank week, focusing on the Federal Reserve and Bank of Japan rate decisions. The market expects a high probability that the Fed will hold steady, while the Bank of Japan has over an 80% chance of raising interest rates.

Last Week’s Review

The US-Iran conflict rapidly shifted from Strait fire to the signing table. Although a ceasefire, reopening of the strait, and gradual asset thawing MOUs have mostly taken shape, external shocks caused by U.S. pressure for “nuclear disarmament” and Israel’s raid on Beirut still introduce significant uncertainties and extreme tug-of-wars.

The number of initial jobless claims in the U.S. for the week ending June 6 was 229k, compared to an expected 219k and the previous 225k, reaching a new high since the week of February 7, 2026.

U.S. Producer Price Index (PPI) for May rose 1.1% month-over-month, versus an expected 0.7%, and the previous figure was revised from 1.40% to 1.1%. The annual PPI for May was 6.5%, compared to an expected 6.4%, and the previous was revised from 6.00% to 5.7%.

The European Central Bank raised the deposit mechanism rate from 2.00% to 2.25%.

U.S. May unadjusted Consumer Price Index (CPI) annual rate hit 4.2%, a new high since April 2023.

The number of initial jobless claims in the U.S. for the week ending June 6 was 229k, higher than the market expectation of 219k and also above the previous 225k.

The initial inflation expectation for the U.S. one-year rate in June was 4.6%.

The U.S. consumer confidence index for June preliminary reading was 48.9, an improvement from 44.8 in May but still significantly below last year’s 60.7.

Key Events & Indicators This Week

June 16

Bank of Japan announces rate decision

June 18

Federal Reserve announces rate decision (02:00)

Federal Reserve Chair Powell holds a monetary policy press conference (02:30)

Bank of England announces rate decision and meeting minutes (19:00)

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ThereIsAChainInTheReflection.
· 5h ago
Holding steady is expected, but the real market trigger is the level of stubbornness in the dot matrix and Powell's tough talk.
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BudgetDeFi
· 5h ago
The plot twist between the US and Iran is happening way too fast—it’s like the MOU was signed and yet somehow not signed. The geopolitical premium still has to stay lurking inside oil prices.
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StakingSparrow
· 5h ago
If the Bank of Japan really hikes rates, the unwind of yen arbitrage might trigger a wave of risk asset crashes; crypto traders should run first.
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TheProphetOfToast
· 5h ago
That Beirut explosion once again stirred up diplomatic tensions; Israel has never been easy to deal with.
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LatencyMonk
· 6h ago
The number for initial unemployment benefits just looks painful; the soft landing narrative is almost impossible to keep up.
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ForkAndChill
· 6h ago
Super Central Bank Week = Super Volatility Week, cut positions in half first and go to sleep
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MoonlightColdWallet
· 6h ago
PPi isn’t fully captured, but it probably won’t look good either; even the Federal Reserve is not sure about this whole “inflation stickiness” issue.
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