Serenity on Technical Analysis: More like a trader's "astrology," with long-term stock price trends still determined by fundamentals

Deep Tide TechFlow News, June 14th, when the market referred to Serenity, known as the "White Hair Stock God," responded to whether he uses technical analysis, providing a rather clear evaluation of this analytical method.

Serenity stated that, in his view, technical analysis is more like "trader astrology," mainly helping to understand market participants' psychology and expectations, as well as finding suitable trading opportunities, rather than predicting the true future growth of a company's value.

He believes that technical analysis can reflect what retail investors and short-term traders currently believe and focus on, but cannot reliably determine how high a stock can ultimately rise.

Taking specific cases as examples, Serenity said that SPCE's past large increase was not due to a certain candlestick pattern, but rather the market re-evaluated the future revenue potential of related industry chain companies; similarly, the sharp rise in AXTI's stock price was driven more by fundamental factors such as indium phosphide substrates, export controls, and the growth of photonics demand.

In his view, a more effective research framework should focus on industry theme linkages, news catalysts, future revenue forecasts, macro environment, company financial reports, circulating share structure, and market game relationships, and derive a reasonable valuation of enterprises through these factors.

Serenity believes that technical analysis can serve as an auxiliary tool, used to find entry points and manage risks, but should not be the core basis for judging a stock's long-term value.

He also cited IREN as an example, stating that although there have been views in the market based on chart patterns to derive high target prices, the company still needs to digest the potential impact of large-scale ATM issuance, which fundamental factors often have a more decisive influence than technical charts.

Serenity said that in the current hot sectors such as AI and semiconductors, industry trends, fundamental changes, and key catalysts remain the core factors influencing stock price directions, and relying solely on technical analysis may face significant judgment risks.