White-haired stock god sharp critique of technical analysis: it is traders' astrology, but stock price increases are mostly driven by fundamental factors

BlockBeats News, June 14 — When asked whether he uses technical analysis, "White-Haired Stock God" Serenity gave a firm response: My opinion may upset many people. Technical analysis (TA) is the trader's astrology, mainly used to confirm biases and to leverage trader psychology to find entry points. It can help you understand what retail investors and traders are thinking and believing at the moment, but it cannot reliably predict a stock's true upside potential. Serenity gave an example that SPCE's previous surge was not due to the appearance of "space comet fire-breathing candle" on the chart, but because the market was pricing in future revenues of companies like JBL and GlobalFoundries; similarly, AXTI's 8,000% surge was not caused by a "golden waterfall candle alert," but driven by fundamental factors such as indium phosphide substrates, export controls, and photonics demand.

Serenity emphasized that the correct research approach should focus on theme correlation (such as the linkage between LITE and AAOI), news catalysts, forward revenue forecasts, macro events, financial reports, circulating supply dynamics, and game theory. Through these, one can derive a reasonable market value for the company. Technical analysis is only suitable as an auxiliary tool for finding entry points and risk management, and should never be used to determine where a stock will ultimately go.

Serenity took IREN as an example — many people drew chart patterns above $120, but in reality, the company first needs to digest a $6 billion ATM offering, making these technical patterns largely useless. Fundamental analysis, catalysts, and theme research determine the direction. Relying solely on technical analysis in current sectors like AI and semiconductors is very prone to failure.