Germany’s “Group Stage Curse” — eliminated in two consecutive tournaments. Can they break it this time?

Germany has suffered an extremely awkward record in the past two World Cups. At the 2018 Russia World Cup, Germany, as the defending champions, finished bottom of their group and were eliminated. At the 2022 Qatar World Cup, Germany were knocked out in the group stage for the second consecutive time. For a traditional powerhouse that has won the World Cup four times, it is unacceptable to be eliminated in the group stage for two straight editions. So at this World Cup, Germany’s goal is not only to advance, but also to prove that they are still among the world’s top-tier teams.

The group-stage opener against Curaçao is Germany’s best chance to reestablish their dominance. They don’t just need to win—they need to win convincingly, declaring the “German war machine” is back with a big-margin victory. If Germany performs poorly in this match, even with a narrow 2-0 win, the media and fans will question their abilities.

Germany’s performance in the European Nations League in 2025 has been somewhat inconsistent—sometimes beating strong teams, and sometimes losing to opponents of average strength. Nagelsmann’s biggest problem is a lack of stability. Against weaker sides, there are times when they have extremely high possession but don’t convert that into efficient goals. This match against Curaçao is just the test Germany needs to assess their ability to break through when facing a “steel wall” defense. As long as Germany can score quickly, everything will fall into place.

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