On June 14th, analyst Darkfost stated that based on on-chain data, long-term Bitcoin holders (LTH, holding for over 6 months) are showing dual characteristics of short-term activity and long-term accumulation. The inflow of LTH to trading platforms in the short term remains above normal levels—when LTH transfers Bitcoin to trading platforms, it most often indicates an imminent sell-off. An "extreme sell-off event" is defined as a period when daily inflow to trading platforms reaches at least five times the annual average level; such signals have recently continued to appear, indicating that LTH still has the capacity to generate sudden selling pressure in the short term.

However, from a longer-term perspective, the annual average inflow of LTH to trading platforms has been steadily declining. Although it recently rebounded slightly from about 630 coins per day in early May to over 800 coins per day, it remains at the lowest level recorded since 2015. Analysts believe this trend suggests that LTH are increasingly inclined to hold long-term, which may also be related to the launch of ETFs and changes in the holder structure following institutional participation.

The conclusion is that although LTH can still generate phased concentrated selling pressure in the short term, their market influence on a medium to long-term scale has significantly weakened, no longer dominating as it did in previous cycles. #我的Gate交易时刻