The suspense isn’t about who wins or loses—it’s about how much you win—Opta’s simulated results are surprising

The match’s simulated data results basically quantify the gap between the two teams very clearly.

Using a supercomputer, the authoritative sports data provider Opta ran 10,000 match simulations. The results show that Germany’s probability of winning is as high as 90.7%, while Curaçao’s probability of pulling off an upset win is only 3.6%, and the draw probability is also only about 5.7%. What does this figure mean? In a competition at the level of the World Cup, when you compare any two teams, it’s very hard to find a matchup with a gap this large. It can be said to be the biggest disparity in strength in this World Cup.

More detailed data also shows that Germany’s probability of finishing first in Group E is 59.9%, its probability of reaching the quarterfinals is 34.2%, and its probability of winning the championship is 5.8%. Although that’s not the highest, it already shows the model’s recognition of Germany’s strength. What is the most likely score? Mainstream views all point to “Germany winning by at least 3 goals.” The scores that foreign media predict with relatively high frequency are 4–0 and 3–0, and even some more aggressive predictions suggest Germany could score 6 goals.

Why is Germany expected to win so big? Besides the gap in strength, there’s another important reason: goal difference. In the group stage, when they face a “bottom-tier” team like Curaçao, if they can rack up enough goal difference, it is very beneficial for competing for the top spot in the group and for the knockout-stage seeding that comes later. So Germany doesn’t just need to win—they need to win convincingly, and win big. It’s expected that Nagelsmann will not make major rotations just because the opponent is weak; instead, he will have the main lineup press hard for a decisive resolution by halftime, and then bring on substitutes in the second half to pad the stats.

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