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#美PPI创两年半新高
PPI just threw cold water on rate-cut hopes.
On June 11, the U.S. Department of Labor dropped another bombshell: Producer Price Index (PPI) rose 5.2% year-over-year in May – the highest level since November 2022. That's a two-and-a-half-year peak.
Month-over-month? Up 0.8% – way above expectations.
What's fueling the fire?
Energy prices again. A 3.9% monthly surge in energy costs was the main driver, mirroring what we saw in last week's hot CPI report.
Back-to-back inflation shocks – first CPI, now PPI – have flipped the narrative. The market's probability of a rate hike this year has climbed to roughly 43% (CME FedWatch). Yes, a hike, not just a delay in cuts.
The reaction was swift: all three major U.S. stock indexes fell under simultaneous pressure.
The takeaway
Inflation isn't cooling – it's simmering. And the Fed's June 17 meeting just got a whole lot more interesting. Energy keeps proving it's the wildcard nobody can ignore.