It just passed midnight Beijing time on Sunday (Saturday in Eastern US time), and Trump posted on social media that he will sign an agreement with Iran on Sunday to reopen the Strait of Hormuz (very specific). Pakistani Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif stated that Pakistan, as a mediator, is preparing to sign the peace agreement electronically, "followed by technical level talks next week." First, this news has been corroborated by Pakistan, increasing credibility. But Iran's national broadcasting reported that a spokesperson denied the possibility of signing the agreement on Sunday. Based on the details provided by Trump, it is unlikely Iran will agree. On one hand, Iran will not receive any funds from the agreement, and will only "release in phases" after fulfilling its obligations. On the other hand, Iran's highly enriched uranium will also need to be destroyed. Second, Trump’s statement of "signing on Sunday" likely means Beijing time Monday from 6:00 to 12:00. If the signing occurs, it will cause a huge shock to global financial markets on Monday, and we need to consider the possibility that "the news is confirmed, and the positive effects are exhausted." If there is "no signing," the market will be greatly disappointed. It is expected that Trump will also hide a second "major news" on Monday night. Third, next Thursday (Wednesday afternoon Eastern US time), the Federal Reserve will announce its interest rate decision, and the dot plot may "hint at a rate hike." Economic data triggering "rate hike concerns" was the root cause of the market plunge earlier this week, and next week the Fed may "directly hint at a rate hike," which will reignite "rate hike panic." Trump needs to create chaos around the Iran issue before and after the Fed meeting to attract market attention. · If the electronic signing on Monday goes smoothly: the Strait of Hormuz reopens, oil prices plummet, reducing the likelihood of a Fed rate hike. · If signing cannot happen on Monday (dragging on): Trump can still release tweets on Tuesday and Wednesday about "negotiation progress, soon to be resolved," keeping the global media focused. Using the Iran issue to divert or even hedge the market’s "rate hike panic" early in the week. In any case, Monday will definitely go down in history as a day with extremely high coffee consumption.