6.14 Market Analysis — Brief Update

Trend Direction: Bearish in the medium term; Slightly Bullish consolidation in the short term

Technical Analysis:

Yesterday, I already analyzed the current market conditions. The lack of effective movement is still continuing. Until the market breaks above or below the key levels, it’s best to keep changes to a minimum and watch more. I personally have been out of the market for 4 days. Today, there isn’t much more to say. The key resistance level and the key support level represented by HVN were mentioned in yesterday’s article, so I won’t go over them again. Today, I will briefly discuss these two targets from the 12H timeframe and larger timeframes.

BTC

On the 12H timeframe, BTC has moved to a key overhead resistance level—MA30. When price touches this area, it may trigger and/or cause a certain pullback (the slope is relatively steep, and it’s the first time touching it). Does that mean we should start looking for short positions on the upcoming market from here? Let’s hold on to that question for now and look at what’s happening on a larger level.

On the weekly timeframe, after being oversold, BTC printed a weak rebound candlestick. Here, it’s very easy to see that after entering next week, MA5 will be pressed down further and will move closer to MA180, with the two coming nearly into overlap. This area also resonates with the resistance zone of 66405-67426 mentioned in yesterday’s article.

On the monthly timeframe, my May article already clearly stated that June’s monthly candle is likely to be a large bearish candle. We’ve already passed 2 weeks of this month, and the monthly K-line has successfully paused the decline temporarily above MA60. But don’t forget: the low point of this round of decline is only less than 1000 US dollars above the lower boundary of the downtrend’s previous consolidation box in the bearish continuation phase. In the second half of the month, after the interest rate decision concludes, I believe there is still a possibility that price will probe further down and extend the monthly bearish candle.

At the same time, if we take a higher-level Fibonacci retracement based on the time dimension from the peak in October last year to the first low of the downtrend’s bearish continuation, we can see that around 52428 will be one of the possible choices for the potential low of this cycle. Coincidentally, this level also overlaps and resonates with the major support range 48941-53359. We can’t predict the low for the next month, but could there be such a possibility?

Finally, coming back to the original question: does that mean we need to start shorting right now? Here, I still stick to my own trading bias. First, observe whether today’s market shows any signs of breaking below the HVN around 63447. If it hasn’t, then we’ll look for a pullback to go long, with a target around 674. Then, after that, we’ll place a medium-term short to target the formation of a new low.

ETH

On the 12H timeframe, ETH is weaker relative to BTC. This is because the oversold drop has been too large—so far, it has not yet touched EMA20, and it is even farther from MA30.

On the weekly timeframe, all the important moving average lines have already been broken to the downside. With the weekly MA5 pressing down, it may form a stage resistance in the coming week. This area also resonates with the key resistance zone 1772-1819.

As for other timeframes, I won’t go into too much detail. Although the asset I mainly focus on is ETH, due to limited liquidity, ETH’s important indicator metrics are still mostly referenced against BTC to conduct research and verification, which can also be seen as a form of “recheck.”

Comprehensive Analysis:

Whether it’s BTC or ETH, combining the current international situation, the data, and the market conditions, the overall direction is definitely bearish—continuing to innovate new lows. As for where the end point of the new lows is, no one can know. It’s just that over the next few days, there may be a rebound to a decent short-entry position. For more conservative execution, you can choose to enter on the right side. If the rebound reaches the expected level, then even if you miss the profit from this leg of upside, you can still ensure a higher level of certainty, as well as a better short-entry price.