Bitcoin has never experienced a bull-bear cycle under a 5% U.S. bond yield; this is the first time.

Do you know what the 30-year U.S. Treasury yield was on the day Bitcoin was born?
About 3.5%.
And today? 5.2%—the highest in nearly 19 years.
In other words, from the genesis block to now, Bitcoin has never fully gone through a bull-bear cycle in an environment where "long-term interest rates stay above 5%." This time, it’s the first.
This isn’t just about high interest rates.
CPI at 4.2%, PPI at 6.5%, and the European Central Bank just raised rates—stagflation is written all over the face.
Inflation can’t be brought down, growth can’t be increased. For risk assets, this is called Davis Double Kill: liquidity expectations tighten, and narratives and earnings expectations both deteriorate.
On June 16-17, global liquidity will face a double blow.
The Bank of Japan announced its rate decision on the 16th, reportedly considering further rate hikes. The world’s last “zero interest rate funding pool” is also starting to shrink—closing arbitrage trades will be like pulling the plug on a bathtub, draining money from various markets.
Then on the 17th, Fed Chair Powell will preside over the FOMC for the first time. The market prices a 97.4% chance that rates will stay unchanged in June, but the real game isn’t about whether they will hike or not, but whether the dot plot and statement will reintroduce rate hike options.
Powell’s debut will likely be hawkish. New officials need to establish authority first.
So what is the current situation?
A macro stress test Bitcoin has never experienced: 5.2% on 30-year U.S. bonds + stagflation + Japan rate hikes + possible hawkish shift by the Fed.
Don’t talk to me about halving, ETFs, or narratives. In the face of long-term rates above 5%, all risk assets are slaves to gravity.
Trading strategy, simple and direct:
Before June 17, any rebound is an opportunity to reduce positions.
Don’t expect a V-shaped reversal. Wait for the two central banks’ decisions to see if long-term rates can fall back below 5%. If they do, a rebound is likely; if not, just endure.
If Powell unexpectedly turns dovish—that would be the real “buy on divergence” moment. But the probability is low, don’t bet on it.
A final message to everyone still holding full positions:
“The money you made in the past four years was earned in an environment with 3% interest rates. Now that rates have doubled, your trading system hasn’t been updated.”
The tuition Bitcoin will pay this time may be more expensive than ever before.