Trump claims the "U.S.-Iran Nuclear Deal" will be signed tomorrow, the Hormuz Strait will be immediately opened, Bitcoin rebounds to $64,500.

Trump claimed on Truth Social at 12:45 AM on the 14th that the U.S.-Iran nuclear agreement will be officially signed tomorrow, and that immediately after signing, the Hormuz Strait will be opened to all ships.
(Background recap: a16z founder Marc Andreessen comments on U.S. AI regulation—opposing outsiders arbitrarily setting rules, and welcoming beneficial “brakes.”)
(Additional background: Pakistan’s prime minister: the U.S.-Iran peace agreement is expected to be finalized within 24 hours.)

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• The high wall to a nuclear-free zone
• Risks remain: the enrichment suspension controversy and the “ultimate fallback”
• BTC rebounds to $64,500

At midnight today (14th) Taiwan time, Trump posted on Truth Social claiming that the nuclear agreement between the United States and Iran will be officially signed “tomorrow,” and that after signing, the Hormuz Strait will be “immediately open to everyone.” This is good news for cooling geopolitical risk-hedging sentiment, but as of the time of this article’s publication, the agreement has not yet been formally signed, and the public is still awaiting official confirmation.

The high wall to a nuclear-free zone

In the same post, Trump launched fierce criticism of the Obama-era JCPOA agreement, calling it “a shortcut to nuclear weapons,” and claimed that if the original agreement had been maintained, Iran would have already possessed nuclear weapons six years ago and had put them into use. He framed the new agreement in a stark contrast: “My agreement with Iran is completely opposite—it’s a high wall to a nuclear-free zone!”

According to Trump, the core terms of the new agreement include: Iran promises not to seek or possess nuclear weapons, whether through purchase, development, or any procurement method; the blockade will be lifted immediately after the Hormuz Strait agreement is signed, and it will be fully opened to commercial vessels; and this time, “there will be no money changing hands.”

On the other hand, however, Iran has continued to state that even if the Hormuz Strait is reopened in the future, ships passing through will still need to pay relevant fees. Whether the situation will truly be as Trump describes remains to be verified over time.

Risks remain: the enrichment suspension controversy and the “ultimate fallback”

During the negotiations between the U.S. and Iran, one of the biggest sticking points for both sides is the issue of uranium enrichment: the Trump camp argues for “a suspension of enrichment” (with a proposal term of up to 20 years), rather than a permanent termination, and this line matters very differently under the international nuclear non-proliferation framework. Whether the final agreement text will fully cover this clause is still to be verified publicly after signing.

At the end of his post, Trump also left an intriguing line of warning: “If the deal doesn’t happen, we still have an ultimate fallback plan—we hope we will never have to use it.” This statement serves both to deter and to keep a back-up exit, while also reminding the market not to price in a “full clearance of geopolitical risk” too early.

BTC rebounds to $64,500

For risk markets, the transmission path investors expect for geopolitical risk de-escalation is: safe-haven demand falls → capital flows out of safe-haven assets → risk appetite rebounds → risk assets are taken up. While risks have not yet been fully ruled out, BTC has indeed continued to rebound over the past few days. This morning it hit a high of $64,758, and ahead of this report it was trading around $64,500, which may confirm the short-term effectiveness of this transmission chain.

If tomorrow’s agreement is truly signed as scheduled and confirmed officially by both sides, the Hormuz Strait is formally reopened and the blockade is lifted, oil prices fall, and global supply-chain pressures ease, then the risk premium for not only Bitcoin but the broader investment market could further narrow. But if the signing is delayed, if details change, or if the “ultimate fallback” surfaces again, the speed at which market sentiment reverses could be quite fast as well.