Next week’s macro outlook: Wosh’s “debut” is coming soon, the Federal Reserve and the Bank of Japan will release their interest rate decisions

Mars Finance reports that on June 13, next week, market focus will center on interest rate decisions from the Federal Reserve and several other major central banks. Since taking office as the new Fed Chair, Waller has remained silent. The press conference following the release of the June interest rate decision will be a key test of his monetary policy stance. The market also expects him to send a clear signal at that time regarding reforms to communication mechanisms. Below are the key points the market will focus on in the new week (all times are Beijing time):

On Monday 15:15, ECB President Lagarde will deliver remarks;
On Tuesday, TBA, the Bank of Japan will announce its interest rate decision;
On Tuesday 14:30, Bank of Japan Deputy Governor Shinichi Uchida will hold a monetary policy press conference;
On Tuesday 20:15, the U.S. ADP employment change for the week ending May 30;
On Thursday 2:00, the Federal Reserve FOMC will release the interest rate decision and the Summary of Economic Projections;
On Thursday 2:30, Fed Chair Waller will hold a monetary policy press conference;
On Thursday 20:30, the U.S. initial jobless claims for the week ending June 13, and the U.S. June Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index.

In terms of policy signals, the market is focused on whether three hawkish Fed signals will be implemented. First, whether the wording in the prior policy statement—“the next step leaning toward rate cuts”—will be removed. If that wording is deleted, it would mean the Fed officially ends its previous easing bias and shifts to a policy tone centered on fighting inflation. Second, changes in the dot plot: the March dot plot showed that there would be one rate cut within the year, but in this dot plot, it is likely to shift toward showing rates staying stable, or even a situation in which most officials expect rate hikes. Finally, the tilt in risk appetite: if officials’ concerns about inflation clearly intensify and worries about the labor market ease, it may pave the way for subsequent rate hikes.

On Friday (June 19), due to Juneteenth, the New York Stock Exchange will close for the day. Trading in precious metals, energy, forex, stock index, and U.S. Treasury futures contracts on CME Group will end early at 01:00 Beijing time on June 20, and trading in Brent crude oil futures on Intercontinental Exchange will end early at 01:30 Beijing time on June 20.