Based on Dow Theory, Chan Theory, Elliott Wave Theory, Volume-Price Relationship, Order Flow, and Price Action Analysis of BTC Short-term Trends

$BTC ‌1. Dow Theory
Main Trend (1-hour level): The medium-term downtrend from the high point of 82,448 on May 10 is experiencing a critical turning point. After a panic plunge to 59,095 on June 5, a strong rebound occurred from June 6–8, reaching a high of 64,184. On June 9, "gap opening, decline with increased volume" from 63,050 straight down to 60,740, then continued to decline to 60,727 (a new low since the rebound), but in the afternoon, a stunning V-shaped reversal brought it back to 62,794. On June 11, a strong rally pushed to 63,833, and on June 12, after consolidation, a sharp surge to 64,340 (breaking the June 8 high). June 13 showed a "steady advance, explosive close" with strong momentum. Starting from 63,553, it steadily climbed, with volume breakthroughs at 01:00 over 63,620, 01:45 over 63,796, after consolidation at 03:00, breakthroughs at 07:45 over 63,840, 08:30 over 63,874, 11:15 over 63,936, and a volume breakout from 63,961 to 64,091 at 12:45, then over 64,194 at 13:15, over 64,286 at 15:15, and in the afternoon, consolidating between 64,000–64,300. A shocking surge from 64,214 to 64,540 at 21:00, peaking at 64,722 at 21:30, then a slight pullback to 64,457 at close. Although the medium-term downtrend has not been fully reversed, the V-shaped reversal from June 10–13 plus continuous upward movement indicates extremely strong bullish power.
Short-term trend (15-minute level): The June 13 movement is a classic "steady advance + explosive close" bullish pattern. Highs and lows are moving upward in sync, with the upward speed accelerating sharply at the close, indicating a steep rising short-term trend.
Dow conclusion: The main trend remains downward, but the downward momentum is significantly weakening. The short-term trend is sharply rising. The June 13 rally has already broken the high points of June 8 (64,184) and June 12 (64,340), creating a new high of 64,722 since the rebound, and the market has returned to a strongly bullish state. The key resistance zone is 65,000–66,000. If the price can effectively break through this zone, the short-term downtrend will be confirmed as reversed; if the rebound is blocked at 64,500 and falls below 63,500, the rebound ends, and the downtrend continues, targeting 62,500–61,000.
2. Chan Theory
Structure of Fractals: On the 15-minute chart, multiple valid top and bottom fractals are marked.
Top Fractals: The top fractal on June 13 shows a significant upward shift from around 64,000 to 64,500, indicating very strong bullish force.
Bottom Fractals: The bottom fractal on June 13 also shifts upward from around 63,500 to 64,000–64,500, showing strong bullish willingness.
Bi (Waves) and Line Segments: From the bottom fractal at 62,759 to the top fractal at 64,340 (June 12, 15:00), forming a very strong upward wave (blue line), with a rise of about 1,581. Then from 64,340 top fractal to 63,414 bottom fractal (June 13, 03:15), forming a downward wave (brown line), with a decline of about 926, very weak, about 58.6% of the previous upward wave, indicating a clear weakening of the bears. Next, from 63,414 bottom fractal to 64,540 top fractal (June 13, 21:15), forming a very strong upward wave (blue line), with a rise of about 1,126, showing bulls still in control. Currently, starting from the 64,540 top fractal, the price is constructing a new initial downward wave, with the latest low at 64,404.
Central Zone: Between 63,000–65,000, the K-line is densely interwoven from June 11–13, forming a new central zone in Chan Theory. The current price of 64,457 is inside the zone, leaning towards the upper edge, indicating a construction phase. In the 60,500–62,000 zone, the dense K-line from June 9–10 has formed a downward central zone, but the V-shaped rebound on June 10 afternoon plus the strong rally from June 11–13 has fully broken through this zone, entering an accelerated upward phase after the zone breakout.
Chan Theory conclusion: The upward waves (+1,581 and +1,126) are extremely strong, while the downward wave (-926) is significantly weakening, showing complete dominance by bulls. Currently, the market is in a high-level oscillation after extending the upward wave, with no sign of termination. Short-term focus is on whether 64,540 can form an effective top fractal; if yes, the upward wave may end. If it directly breaks through 65,000, the upward wave extends, risking a move towards 66,000–67,000.
3. Elliott Wave Theory
Based on the 1-hour wave structure, the movement since the high of 82,448 on May 10 is divided into a typical "five-wave decline + ABC rebound" pattern:
Wave 1 (Crash): From 82,448 down to 75,658 (May 26), about -6,790.
Wave 2 (Correction): From 75,658 up to 78,002 (May 26), about +2,344.
Wave 3 (Main decline): From 78,002 down to 66,703 (June 2), about -11,299.
Wave 4 (Correction): From 66,703 up to 74,153 (May 31), about +7,450.
Wave 5 (Final crash): From 74,153 down to 59,095 (June 5), about -15,058.
A Wave (Correction): From 59,095 up to 64,184 (June 8, 15:00), about +5,089.
B Wave (Pullback): From 64,184 down to 60,727 (June 10, 09:00), about -3,457. The B wave correction is about 67.9% of A wave, a typical deep correction.
C Wave (Expansion): From 60,727 up to 64,722 (June 13, 21:30), about +3,995. The current C wave is about 78.5% of A wave. If C equals A in length, target is about 65,800–66,000; if C is 1.618 times A, target is about 67,500–68,000.
Wave conclusion: The market is currently in the unfolding phase of the ABC rebound C wave. The strength of C wave is very strong, and B wave has not broken the starting point of A wave at 59,095, which is a positive signal. If C wave can break through 65,000 and continue upward, the rebound target is 66,000–68,000; if it is blocked near 65,000 and falls below 63,500, C wave fails, and a downward impulsive wave begins.
4. Volume-Price Relationship
Overall volume-price features: On June 13, there was extremely positive volume-price behavior. During the steady rise in the morning, volume gradually increased; during the consolidation in the afternoon, volume shrank; and during the explosive surge at the close, huge volume appeared. Volume surged during the upward moves, with dense volume candles and increasing volume levels, indicating very strong bullish power.
Key volume-price nodes:

At 01:00 on June 13, a volume spike bullish candle (volume 616 million) from 63,564 to 63,621, body 57, confirming early bullish attack.

At 01:45, a volume spike bullish candle (volume 587 million) from 63,714 to 63,797, body 83, confirming strong bullish force.

At 03:45, a massive volume bullish candle (volume 574 million) from 63,471 to 63,494, body 23, still absorbing buy orders during consolidation.

At 05:00, a massive volume bullish candle (volume 775 million) from 63,478 to 63,527, body 49, confirming continued bullish attack in the afternoon.

At 07:45, a massive volume bullish candle (volume 653 million) from 63,771 to 63,806, body 35, confirming sustained bullish strength.

At 11:15, a massive volume bullish candle (volume 617 million) from 63,868 to 63,907, body 39, confirming bullish explosion.

At 12:45, a shocking massive volume bullish candle (volume 618 million) from 63,961 to 64,091, body 130, confirming bullish momentum explosion in the afternoon.

At 15:15, a massive volume bullish candle (volume 515 million) from 64,243 to 64,252, body 9, confirming sustained bullish strength.

At 21:00, a shocking massive volume bullish candle (volume 617 million) from 64,214 to 64,540, body 326, confirming bullish momentum explosion, panic buying surging.

At 21:30, a terrifying massive volume bullish candle (volume 617 million) from 64,214 to 64,722, body 508, confirming extreme bullish power at the close.
Recent 10 x 15-minute candles: From 64,426 oscillating back to 64,457, volume shows decreasing consolidation, market waiting in the 64,400–64,500 zone for direction.
Volume-Price conclusion: The June 13 surge was accompanied by massive volume, indicating very strong bullish power. The high-level shrinking volume consolidation suggests both bulls and bears are resting. Key observation points: If a pullback to around 64,000–63,500 shows decreasing volume and halts decline, C wave continues; if volume increases and breaks below 63,500, C wave fails.
5. Order Flow
Volume Profile: The recent 3-day volume control point (POC) is at 63,537, the area with the densest trading, forming the current key value zone center. The current price of 64,457 is well above POC, showing a positive divergence between market value and actual price, with bulls dominating.
Current position analysis: Price at 64,457 is about 920 above POC, in the above-value zone with a large deviation. In order flow theory, breaking above POC indicates short-term buyers are fully in control, market shifting from discount to premium. The current price is approaching higher value zones, but resistance appears near 65,000.
High Volume Nodes (HVN):

64,000–65,000: Resistance HVN (formed after the surge at June 13 close, currently creating resistance)

63,000–64,000: Core support HVN (dense trading zone on June 12–13, current support)

62,000–63,000: Lower support HVN (early June 12 trading zone)

60,500–61,500: Strong support HVN (massive absorption zone after June 10 plunge)
Delta analysis (bottom sub-chart): Delta estimates show that during the June 13 surge at 12:45, Delta turned significantly positive (+2B), confirming active buying dominance. During the late rally at 21:00–21:30, Delta again turned strongly positive (+3B), confirming extreme active buying at the close. Currently, Delta MA12 has recovered from negative to deep positive, indicating very strong buying power and weakened selling pressure.
Order flow conclusion: Price breaking above POC 63,537 indicates short-term buyers are fully in control, market in a premium state. The key HVN resistances are near 65,000 and 65,500. If Delta remains positive with volume breakthroughs at these levels, expect an attack towards 66,000; if Delta stays negative and price falls below 63,500, C wave fails.
6. Price Action
Support and Resistance Levels:

Strong Resistance: 82,448 (high point), 78,002 (May 26 rebound high), 74,153 (May 31 rebound high), 64,722 (June 13 rebound high)

Key Resistance: 65,000 (psychological level), 64,500 (psychological level), 64,340 (June 12 rebound high), 64,184 (June 8 rebound high)

Key Support: 64,000 (psychological level), 63,500 (June 13 consolidation lower boundary), 63,000 (psychological level), 62,500 (June 12 consolidation lower boundary), 62,759 (June 12 early low), 60,727 (June 10 plunge low), 59,095 (June 5 plunge low)
Candlestick patterns:

June 13 12:45: A large bullish candle with long lower shadow (body 130, no lower shadow), from 63,961 to 64,091, indicating bullish explosion, forming a "bullish engulfing" pattern.

June 13 21:00: A large bullish candle with long lower shadow (body 326), from 64,214 to 64,540, indicating bullish explosion.

June 13 21:30: A large bullish candle with long upper shadow (body 508), from 64,214 to 64,722, indicating bullish momentum reaching extreme.

June 13 21:45: A bearish candle with long upper shadow (body -82), from 64,546 to 64,438, showing selling pressure near 64,722, forming a "shooting star" bearish pattern.
Trend structure:

Short-term: Running in a steep upward channel (connecting 60,727, 62,759, 63,414, 64,214)

Mid-term: The downtrend since May 10’s high of 82,448 is experiencing a critical turning point, with a new upward trend forming.
Price action conclusion: The market is in a high-level oscillation after a surge, with 65,000 as the key dividing line: a break confirms an uptrend targeting 66,000–67,000; a rejection tests support at 64,000–63,500.
Overall assessment:
Dow Theory indicates the main trend remains downward but with weakening downward momentum, while the short-term trend is sharply upward, with key levels at 65,000 (up) and 63,500 (down). Chan Theory shows extremely strong upward waves (+1,581 and +1,126) and weakening downward wave (-926), currently in a high-level oscillation after extension. Elliott Wave confirms a completed five-wave decline and an unfolding ABC rebound with C wave (+3,995) targeting 66,000–68,000. Volume-price features on June 13 show massive volume with a "shooting star" warning. Order flow indicates POC at 63,537, with price above POC and positive Delta MA12. Price action shows "bullish engulfing" and "shooting star" patterns, with a strongly bullish bias short-term but heavy resistance at 65,000.
Short-term strategy suggestions:

Bullish scenario: If price shows decreasing volume and halts decline near 63,500–64,000 with bottom fractal and positive Delta, consider going long, targeting 65,000 → 66,000, with stop-loss at 62,800.

Bearish scenario: If rebound reaches 65,000–65,500 with top fractal and volume decline, confirming C wave rebound failure and the start of a downward impulsive wave, consider shorting, targeting 63,500 → 62,500, with stop-loss at 65,800.
Current state: At 64,457, in a high-level oscillation after a surge, with a strong bullish bias but resistance at 65,000. Wait for a pullback to 63,500–64,000 to confirm support before considering longs, or wait for a break above 65,000 to confirm trend reversal before chasing the rally.