Iran Denies Sunday Signing as Trump Declares Strait of Hormuz 'Open to All' Tomorrow

U.S. President Donald Trump declared Saturday that a landmark agreement with Iran will be signed on Sunday, June 14, with the Strait of Hormuz reopening to all shipping immediately afterward, but Iranian officials quickly disputed that timeline.

• Key Takeaways:
• • Trump posted on Truth Social that the so-called Iran deal signing is set for June 14, with the Hormuz Strait reopening immediately after.
• • Iranian spokesperson Esmaeil Baghaei denied a Sunday signing, citing U.S. instability as talks continue into late June 2026.
• • Polymarket traders assigned June 14 just a 39% chance, with $47.1M total volume favoring a July 31 resolution at 89%.

What Trump Said

Trump posted Saturday on Truth Social that his agreement with Iran represents the opposite of the Obama-era JCPOA, which he called a pathway to an Iranian nuclear bomb. He framed the new deal in stark terms: “My Agreement with Iran is the exact opposite, A WALL TO NO NUCLEAR WEAPON! In fact, they no longer want a Nuclear Weapon, nor will they have one, either through purchase, development, or any other form of procurement.”

He stated the deal would carry no cash component, a direct contrast to the Obama administration’s $1.7 billion cash transfer. Trump added that U.S. forces would later retrieve and destroy nuclear material buried beneath Iranian mountains, citing B-2 bomber strikes as the method that rendered it accessible.

He also left the door open to military action if diplomacy fails: “If it doesn’t, we have the ultimate alternative, hopefully never to be used again.”

Iran’s Response

Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesperson Esmaeil Baghaei said Saturday that no signing of the Islamabad Memorandum would take place on Sunday, according to several reports. He added a deal in the coming days could not be ruled out, but cited what he described as hesitation and instability from the American side. Iranian Foreign Minister Seyed Abbas Araghchi has separately stated the agreement has “never been closer” while urging the media to wait for an official announcement before speculating.

Iranian state media advised readers to treat Trump’s claims skeptically until Tehran issues a formal statement.

Leaked Terms and Trump’s Dismissal

Trump on June 12 dismissed leaked Iranian versions of the deal’s terms as fabrications, writing: “The terms that Iran leaked out to the Fake News have NOTHING to do with the terms that were agreed to, in writing. What they said, including their weak and pathetic statement on having a deal, bears no relation to the truth. Very dishonorable people to deal with. With them, there is no such thing as dealing in good faith.”

He also called a reported Iranian drone attack on Indian vessels near the Strait “TOTALLY UNACCEPTABLE” and told Iran to “get their act together, and FAST!”

Background: Six Months of Crisis

The standoff stems from Operation Epic Fury on Feb. 28, 2026, when U.S. and Israeli forces struck Iranian nuclear and military sites. Iran retaliated with missile and drone attacks and imposed an IRGC blockade on the Strait of Hormuz, the chokepoint for roughly 20% of global seaborne oil and LNG trade, or about 10 million barrels per day.

Brent crude peaked above $126 per barrel during the worst of the disruptions. Partial ceasefire attempts in April produced limited results. The U.S. imposed a naval blockade on Iranian ports from mid-April. Renewed U.S. airstrikes around June 10 ratcheted tension back up before Trump cited progress and paused follow-on operations June 11.

Pakistan, through Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif and Field Marshal Asim Munir, has brokered the Islamabad talks. Sharif said the two sides reached a “final, agreed-upon text” and predicted an imminent signing.

What Prediction Markets Show

Polymarket‘s market tracking whether the U.S. officially announces a new Iran agreement or ceasefire extension has generated $47.1 million in total trading volume since its May 23 launch. The crowd currently assigns a June 14 resolution just a 39% probability. June 15 sits at 50%. The most favored outcome is July 31, carrying an 89% probability.

Polymarket agreement/ceasefire odds on Saturday, June 13, 2026, at 3 p.m. Eastern time. A separate Polymarket market on whether Trump officially declares the April ceasefire over shows June 15 at just 1% and June 30 at 10%, signaling traders see continued de-escalation as the more likely near-term path, even with the current discord.

What It Means for Markets

A confirmed Hormuz reopening would ease pressure on global oil prices, reduce shipping insurance costs, and lift supply chain strain across fuel and fertilizer markets. Equity and crypto markets have previously responded positively to signals of diplomatic progress in the region. Bitcoin has been trading above the $64,000 zone following Trump’s statements. The gap between Trump’s Sunday claim and Iran’s denial keeps uncertainty elevated heading into the weekend.

As of late Saturday afternoon (3 p.m. EDT June 13), no signing had taken place, and the timeline remained contested.