Just received the news, both Trump and the Pakistani Prime Minister are hinting that the peace agreement between the US and Iran might be signed this Sunday.

But what about Iran? Their stance is a bit different—only saying "ready to sign," not confirming the signing on Sunday.

So now, this situation has turned into a game of "Truth or Dare," where we still have to guess who’s being genuine and who’s not.

But I have a sense of what's really going on. No matter what the terms are, the probability of it actually being signed is quite high. The only variable is whether it gets stuck on signing this Sunday—that directly determines whether I go short on WTI.

The logic is simple: if it’s truly signed on Sunday → expectations of the Strait of Hormuz reopening → oil prices at least drop to $78.

Here’s what I’m doing now:

I’ve placed a short position at $86 on Brent to hedge against a rebound.

Then, I’ve closed all my WTI positions.

Why close? Because I’ve already made a 112% profit on this move. Closing everything locks in at least 12% net profit in my pocket.

What’s this money for? Waiting for Sunday.

If it’s truly signed and oil prices fall, I’ll use this money to short WTI again, while closing my Brent position—that’s basically a position switch.

If the agreement falls through again and isn’t signed, I’ll keep my short on Brent and close WTI, which can still preserve about 70% of the profit.

If oil prices keep rising, I’ll wait until $88 to short WTI again.

If prices drop directly, I’ll focus on Brent.

As for (BTC), I’m not worried at all.

I’ve already opened a position around $61,000, wanting to buy some.

Honestly, at the $60k level, there’s quite a lot of buying interest, so adding some more isn’t a bad idea.

My only concern is: if the agreement is truly signed on Sunday and market risk sentiment eases, Bitcoin will likely surge.

Then I won’t be able to buy in, and that would be awkward...

So I think I’ll need to make a move on Sunday. If nothing else works, I’ll just buy some spot Bitcoin. $BTC ‌#美国5月CPI创三年新高