Morocco isn’t an easy pushover—last tournament’s top four, 20 matches unbeaten. Brazil is running into a wall!

A lot of fans still associate Morocco with the “dark horse” from last World Cup, but if you think they were just a flash in the pan, you’re dead wrong. From 2024 to now, Morocco have stayed unbeaten in their most recent 20 matches with 14 wins and 6 draws. In the African qualifiers, they went 8 for 8 and secured qualification three rounds early—currently the only African team to advance undefeated. Although there was controversy in the Africa Cup of Nations final, they were also retroactively awarded the championship.

This team’s biggest strength isn’t their offense, but their defense. In their last 10 matches, they’ve gone 7 wins and 3 draws, with a goals-for/goals-against record of 22 to 3. In those 10 games, they’ve conceded only 3 goals—putting that defensive record among the top tier of the entire World Cup’s 32-team field. With the back line led by Achraf, plus goalkeeper Bounou, they’ve built a very mature and extremely disciplined low-block defensive system. They won’t try to trade blows with Brazil in open play; instead, they’ll compress their defense, keep the three lines tightly connected, and make it impossible for Brazil’s attack to find a way in. High pressing and technical passing to dominate possession? Morocco simply don’t give you space to play your game. They break the match rhythm directly through physical duels and dense positioning.

Three years ago, in a friendly match, Morocco beat Brazil 2-1, leaving a deep impression on every Brazilian player. At that time, Casemiro scored for Brazil—he’s still on the squad today as well. Morocco’s style of play—“if I can’t control the ball, then neither will you”—made Brazil feel extremely uncomfortable. Brazil’s possession rate exceeded 65% across the match, but the number of truly threatening shots was very limited. What’s more, the player giving Brazil the biggest headache is Achraf, a top-tier right-back in today’s world football—he can suppress Brazil’s left-sided attacking threat on both ends of the pitch. In this match, he’s matched up perfectly against Vinicius—an absolute clash of styles.

However, Morocco also has injury concerns. Key winger Abde and center-back Aguerd withdrew from the World Cup due to injuries, and right-back Mazraoui is also in doubt to play. There are missing key players across all three lines. Even though their overall cohesion is extremely strong, their depth in the squad can’t compare with Brazil’s, and the impact of these absences on both offense and defense shouldn’t be underestimated.

My read on Morocco’s tactics for this game is very simple: a fortress formation, preventing Brazil from getting behind them. Rely on set pieces and counterattacks to “steal the win.” Achraf will be very focused on defending Vinicius, not giving him space to cut inside for shots. On the attacking end, they’ll mainly depend on counterattacks, using Enzo’s speed to pressure Brazil’s right flank. A draw is absolutely acceptable for Morocco. If they can take even a point, the situation for advancing from the group will look very good. I think Morocco can hold the line at the bottom end, with at most a one-goal loss.

#预测世界杯巴西VS摩洛哥