Neymar is out! Brazil's first match is in trouble, can Ancelotti's bold gamble pay off?

Brothers, after the World Cup has been going on for a while, the truly top-tier powerhouse teams are finally stepping onto the field. Sunday morning at 6 a.m., five-star Brazil will face off against last World Cup semi-finalist Morocco at Yankee Stadium in New York. Even before the game starts, it's already causing a stir—Brazil's top star Neymar has confirmed he will be absent, and right-wing star Wesley has also withdrawn due to injury. Facing such tough opponents in Ancelotti's first match, is the Samba team really stable?

First, let's talk about Neymar. Ancelotti officially announced at the pre-match press conference: Neymar has a grade two calf injury and definitely won't play in the first match; he might only return in the second group stage game against Haiti. Brazilian media reports are even more pessimistic, suggesting he might miss the entire group stage. How big is this impact on Brazil? Neymar is Brazil's all-time top scorer, and his ball-handling and creativity in the front line are unmatched in the current squad. Although Vinicius, Raphinha, and Cunha are all individually talented, none of them are the organizational core. Without Neymar threading the needle in the middle, Brazil's attack will become heavily reliant on individual efforts on the wings.

What's more troublesome is that Brazil's performance in the World Cup qualifiers has already sounded alarm bells for fans. 18 matches: 8 wins, 4 draws, 6 losses, ranking fifth in South America—an all-time low. If not for the World Cup expanding to 48 teams and South America getting 6.5 spots, Brazil would have to play intercontinental playoffs. After being double defeated by Argentina at Maracanã, ending their unbeaten streak at home in qualifiers, this state of form makes it hard to feel confident.

However, Brazil's squad depth is still top-tier. Goalkeepers Alisson and Ederson are interchangeable; the defense features the top-tier pairing of Marquinhos and Gabriel; midfielders Casemiro and Bruno Guimarães provide both attack and defense. Ancelotti is likely to set up a 4-2-3-1 formation, with Vinicius and Raphinha on the wings, Cunha up front. But the problem is, who will play on the right? Starting right-back Wesley injured and withdrew during the warm-up against Egypt; 34-year-old Danilo is likely to start. He has experience, but I worry whether his speed and stamina can withstand Morocco's Achraf, who is known for his pace and attacking runs.

Polymarket's data is quite interesting—I checked, and the prediction market shows Brazil's chances of winning at only 17.5%, while Morocco's are as high as 82.5%. If you only look at these numbers on the surface, it might seem like the market is crazy, but a closer look reveals that these are conditional probabilities, not outright betting odds. Traditional bookmakers like DraftKings give Brazil a moneyline of -150 (implying about a 60% chance), Morocco +450 (about 18%), and a draw at +280 (roughly 26%). That means the market generally believes Brazil has a better chance, but it's not a sure thing.

Personally, I think Brazil's key to winning this opener is whether they can score early. If Brazil scores early, Morocco will be forced to push forward, opening up more space for Brazil's attack. But if it remains 0-0 into the second half, Brazilian players' nerves will tighten, and Morocco's counterattacks could become very threatening. Brazil's record of undefeated first matches in 20 World Cups—whether they can keep that streak alive is really uncertain. #预测世界杯巴西VS摩洛哥