June 13, 2026 BTC Contract Strategy (Current Price ~63,600 USDT)

Core tone: Daily chart shows a major bearish trend, 4H is oscillating weakly, rebound to short on rallies, key support levels for long positions, do not chase highs, do not hold large positions.
1. Trend and Structure (D1)

• Moving Averages: Price below 20EMA (67,186) and 50EMA (71,086), bearish alignment.

• Bollinger Bands: Opening downward, price operating below the middle band, complete downward channel.

• MACD: Below zero line, green bars converging, weakening bearish momentum but no golden cross, rebound is not a reversal.

• RSI(14): ≈36, leaning bearish near oversold, with slight rebound potential.

2. Key Price Levels (Short-term Core)

Resistance (Shorting zone)

• R1: 64,500–65,000 (Intraday strong resistance, pivot level)

• R2: 67,000 (20EMA + weekly liquidity top)

Support (Longing zone)

• S1: 62,500–63,000 (Intraday bottom of range, further breakdown continues decline)

• S2: 61,000–61,500 (4H demand zone, dense long positions)

• S3: 59,500–60,000 (Strong support, key bottom of this decline)

3. 4H Trading Strategy (Can be executed directly)

1) Short positions (main strategy, trend-following)

• Entry: 64,500–65,000 encountering resistance (bearish candle / long upper shadow)

• Stop-loss: above 65,500 (above R2)

• Take profit: 63,000 → 61,500 (partial exits)

• Position size: ≤20% (low liquidity over weekend)

2) Long positions (secondary strategy, rebound)

• Entry: 61,000–61,500 stabilizing (bullish candle / long lower shadow)

• Stop-loss: below 60,500 (below S2)

• Take profit: 63,500 → 64,500 (exit on resistance)

• Position size: ≤10% (weak rebound, light positions)

3) Wait-and-see (neutral zone)

• Range: 63,000–64,500, oscillate without breaking through, avoid heavy positions and frequent stop-losses.

4. Risk Control and Timing Rules

• Weekend risk control: Low liquidity, frequent whipsaws, single position ≤20%, total position ≤30%.

• Breakout rules:

◦ Break above 65,000 with volume, cancel short positions, wait or lightly long.

◦ Break below 62,500 with volume, cancel long positions, add to short positions trend-following.

• Macro risk: FOMC meeting on 6/16 expected, reduce positions early, set proper stop-loss.

5. Today's One Sentence Summary

Short at 64,500–65,000, long at 61,000–61,500, observe in between; do not look for longs if not above 65,500; do not look for shorts #我的Gate交易时刻 if below 60,500.