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The recent World Cup has just started, and as one of the hottest betting series in prediction markets,
Seeing friends around me trying to use AI to predict match outcomes, I also want to explore and verify whether there are obvious mispricings in these odds, thus finding good arbitrage opportunities.
But manually comparing multiple bookmakers + deducting vig + calculating fair probabilities takes too much time. So I directly used the World Cup mispricing radar feature recommended by my friend from Antseer @AntseerCN, which only requires pasting a Polymarket market link, and the AI Agent automatically completes the entire process:
- Fetch real-time odds from multiple mainstream bookmakers (Pinnacle, Betfair Exchange, William Hill, Bet365)
- Remove vig (juice) and infer implied probabilities
- Weight and normalize to output three-way fair probabilities (Fair Probability)
- Directly compare with Polymarket prices, providing Edge Signal and position suggestions
Taking the "Brazil vs Morocco" match as an example, the fair probabilities given by Antseer are:
- Brazil win 56.46%
- Draw 25.72%
- Morocco win 17.82%
And the weighted results from the four bookmakers' odds after removing vig are very close to the fair probabilities, with no obvious positive edge in any of the three outcomes. Ultimately, this market is currently balanced, with no significant arbitrage opportunities.
Throughout the process, Antseer not only quickly provided relevant conclusions but also detailed traceable calculation steps, including each bookmaker's weight, vig deduction logic, and 95% confidence interval, making it clear "how this judgment was made."
I originally just wanted to try some arbitrage, and rather than doing it step-by-step with coding tools myself, it's better to use this ready-to-use tool to help obtain the data and results we want.
Experience link: