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6.15–6.19 Bitcoin Chart Analysis Next Week's Long-term Outlook by Shiyuan
1. Next Week's Long-term Forecast
Core judgment: Wide-range volatility, biased towards bullishness, mainly dip buying on pullbacks, break below turns to bearish.
Overall range: 61,500-65,000
Strong support: 61,800-62,200 (bulls' lifeline, stabilization is a buying opportunity)
Strong resistance: 64,500-65,000 (breakthrough and hold above targets 66,000+, otherwise a quick retreat after a rally)
Next week's rhythm: First look for a pullback to confirm support, then oscillate and rebound, with a focus on the Federal Reserve rate decision guidance on 6.17.
2. News Factors
✅ Positive
Middle East geopolitical easing: US-Iran détente, risk appetite improves, Nasdaq-driven rebound in the crypto market.
ETF capital inflow: Ended 13 consecutive days of net outflows, institutional sentiment marginally improves.
On-chain bottoming signals: Fear index at ice point, extreme negative funding rates, crowded shorts, increased short squeeze probability.
Federal Reserve expectations: 98% chance of holding rates steady at the 6.17 rate decision, bullish sentiment rising as bearish expectations fade.
❌ Negative
High inflation: US May CPI at 4.2%, high interest rates suppress risk assets, rate cut expectations delayed.
Institutional capital diversion: AI and tech sectors attract funds, Bitcoin funds diverted.
Regulatory uncertainty: US "Clarity Act" implementation expectations cooling, policy disruptions still exist.
Short-term selling pressure: After previous sharp decline, high-level trapped positions still have selling demand.
3. Trading Suggestions
1. Wait for a pullback to 61,800-62,200 and stabilize, buy gradually on dips, target 64,500-65,000.
2. Exit if effectively below 61,500 to cut losses, beware of risks around 60,500-60,000.
3. In the short term, when reaching the 64,500 resistance level, if not broken, consider small long positions for high sell, re-enter on pullback.
4. Core principle: do not hold heavy positions, do not chase highs, do not hold large orders; in a volatile market, use time to buy space, strictly set stop-losses. $BTC