SpaceX's first day surged 19% to close at $161, with a trading volume of $85 billion breaking records! Can such a high valuation really be absorbed?

SpaceX officially listed on NASDAQ yesterday, with an IPO price of $135. It surged strongly at the open, eventually closing near $161, a 19.22% increase. The trading volume exceeded $85 billion that day, directly breaking the record for the largest single-day trading volume in U.S. IPOs, ranking in the top ten in history. Retail and institutional FOMO sentiment clearly resonated, with a high turnover rate. Elon Musk also became the first person in history with a net worth exceeding $1 trillion, with market capitalization once reaching $2.1 trillion.

This performance indeed exceeded market expectations. SpaceX’s core story has always been strong: Starlink now has over 10 million global users, providing stable high-speed internet in remote areas, at sea, and in aviation, with revenue growing rapidly. The reusable Starship rocket + large capacity design, if it can achieve high-frequency, low-cost launches in the future, could significantly reduce launch costs, upgrading Starlink’s profitability model. Plus, long-term stable contracts with NASA, the military, and others add long-term growth potential to the space sector.
However, honestly, the current valuation has already front-loaded optimistic expectations for the next few years. A $2.1 trillion market cap corresponds to a very high price-to-sales ratio based on past revenue. The company still reports operating losses, and Starship’s testing progress has faced multiple delays. Regulatory issues (spectrum allocation, international market access), competition (Amazon’s Kuiper, etc.), and execution risks still exist. After such a surge on the first day, short-term profit-taking and volatility are likely to increase.

Interestingly, other commercial space stocks instead declined because this wave of funds clearly grouped around SpaceX, a typical “siphoning effect.” It indicates that market sentiment in the short term is highly concentrated on one target.

My view: SpaceX is definitely a game-changing company. If the execution of Starship and Starlink can continue to deliver, it has the potential to become a major global infrastructure provider, and the long-term story remains valid. But the current price no longer offers much safety margin; any underperformance or macroeconomic changes could trigger a correction. After the first day’s strong rally, the short-term movement seems more driven by sentiment, while the long-term depends on real performance and milestone achievements.

Strategy suggestions (for reference only):
• Long-term allocation: If you believe in the space sector and humanity’s multi-planetary future narrative, consider small, phased positions. Key indicators to watch are Starlink user growth, ARPU increase, Starship flight frequency, and launch cost data. Don’t rush all in; leave room for safety margins and holding periods.
• Short-term trading: Suitable for swing trading or options strategies in a high-volatility environment, but be aware that implied volatility (IV) might be high, and time decay risks are significant. It’s advisable to wait until the initial week’s sentiment stabilizes and clear support levels appear before acting.
• Overall market impact: The success of such mega-IPOs often temporarily boosts tech growth stocks and risk appetite, indirectly benefiting risk assets like crypto. But ultimately, it depends on macro liquidity (interest rates, U.S. Treasury yields, etc.), so don’t focus solely on a single event.

SpaceX’s first-day performance has once again elevated the space narrative to a new height, but a high valuation also means every step must withstand scrutiny. What’s your take? Continue riding this momentum, or wait for a correction before considering? Could Starlink truly revolutionize global connectivity like smartphones or mobile internet?

Feel free to share your views and strategies in the comments. Let’s learn from each other. High-quality insights are mutually beneficial!
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