SPCX went in above 176 yesterday. I originally thought it would pump—its opening price was 140—but it did rise, just not enough. I took the stop-loss and exited. This also confirmed the result that it can’t really go up. Then I shorted around 172.

My overall fundamental research on SpaceX makes me feel it’s impossible for it to rise. The research method I use is the same one I used back in the crypto VC era. It’s applicable to the financial industry too, and in-person (real-world) projects are better for research than crypto projects—after all, there’s data for everything. Many things in crypto are not available and require you to infer them yourself. And I also have to thank Elon Musk for pushing me to learn stock analysis.

Given SpaceX’s overall three components—XAI, rocket launches, and Starlink—plus the overall losses, a P/E ratio of 100, some financial data, and China’s catch-up, I think it can’t move up.

Actually, Musk is very impressive when it comes to real-world ventures. I’ve read Musk’s biography. When PayPal made money, he started buying luxury cars and mansions. Later, a car accident happened, and then he founded SpaceX. In the hardest times, he couldn’t even pay wages, so he used company stock as compensation. Some people didn’t believe in him and only watched his website countdown failure, while some employees supported him and got shares. Now, it seems he’s a millionaire, even a ten-millionaire. During this low point, Musk also reached out to many big names, and in the end it was the CEO of Google who helped him. When people are at their most difficult moment, nobody will back you. I’ve experienced that firsthand. When I hit my lowest point, and my brothers were in trouble, I borrowed money to help them. When I needed to turn things around, I went to look for them—but none of them cared; they all hid far away. The next day, SpaceX was about to go bankrupt—God saved him: NASA’s $3 billion order came in, reviving SpaceX! Then Starlink, step by step, got to where it is today.

I remember that in 2021 there was a “tu dog” coin called Starlink starl. If you’ve heard of this coin, it means you’re definitely an old veteran. No—most likely, you’re a newbie. Back then, lots of people were crazily accumulating it, because Musk had endorsed it. Of course he wasn’t directly calling for buys—he expressed it indirectly. And it also had support from doge. Now this coin is zero.

Talking about real-world ventures—back to spcx, because the valuation is too high! Just like the crypto bull market this time, jumping in with a high valuation at the start is cutting the leeks—no doubt. That’s also why altcoins can’t rally in this bull market.

From the perspective of real-world ventures, I admire Musk. From the perspective of finance, he’s a scythe. Suddenly I remembered that Musk has a one-of-a-kind talent that he has fully maxed out. When a company wants to fire people and a position is missing, and HR asks what to do, Musk says, “I’ll cover it.” He went back and learned it in one night, and then he knew how to do it. That’s really amazing. I’d say my self-learning ability is pretty good too. After I finish learning, I can apply it quickly—but compared to him, I genuinely admire him!

So I firmly believe spcx will fall below 140. After all, those who got chips worth $100 million to $1 billion should have made 1,000% to 10x (and should be looking to sell), just like Coinbase’s listing back then.

Yesterday, I also didn’t pay attention to wld—I didn’t short. I saw it, but missed the chance. Last night I was telling students that I was going to short stg, because its price action was clearly set up to drop. In the end, it dropped at 8 a.m., and I was still asleep. The only thing I’m relatively satisfied with is that the Hype short at 62 worked out, and the 64306 short worked out on Big Pie. I already closed the Big Pie position, but I’m still holding Hype. Based on my experience, one person can watch at most 3–5 coins; if there are more than that, your focus won’t be enough.

Once Hype is closed, I can withdraw funds. Let’s wait and see.

$SPCX $HYPE $STG