Analysis: The easing of US-Iran tensions is driving Bitcoin's rebound, but market reversal still requires ETF capital inflows and a return of buying interest for confirmation

BlockBeats News, June 13 — Bitcoin fell below $60,000 from nearly $73,000, then rebounded to about $63,500. BTC is still roughly 50% below its all-time high of around $126,000 in October 2025. This decline has brought BTC into a valuation range typically associated with bear market bottoms, but there has been no panic selling usually used to confirm a bottom. One of the catalysts for this drop comes from Michael Saylor's Strategy. The company disclosed on June 1 that it sold 32 BTC for about $2.5 million to pay STRC preferred stock dividends.

Despite the relatively small scale compared to its approximately 845,000 BTC holdings, Saylor's long-standing emphasis on "never selling Bitcoin" led the market to interpret this sale as a change in behavior. Strategy may be attempting to demonstrate that BTC can be used as a corporate treasury asset rather than just a long-term hold through small-scale sales. Meanwhile, tensions in Iran previously pushed oil prices higher and heightened concerns about maintaining high interest rates, making BTC more like a high-beta Nasdaq proxy asset.

Subsequently, macro factors drove a market rebound. Trump stated that the U.S. has effectively ended its war with Iran, and officials also reported progress in signing agreements. Brent crude oil fell toward $85, and U.S. stocks rebounded. SpaceX went public on Nasdaq on Friday, closing at $161, up 19% from the $135 IPO price, further boosting risk appetite. BTC's 4.7% weekly gain masked the true volatility: the price dropped into a long-term undervalued range, stabilized without a forced sell-off spiral, and rebounded after macro news improved. However, a true market reversal still requires demand to return, including stable ETF capital flows, renewed buying interest, and enough distressed positions to be cleared.