#我的Gate交易时刻 SpaceX's first day of trading closed up 19.22%, with a market value reaching $2.1 trillion. Will it go higher?

Elon Musk, who focuses solely on cyber ascension rather than fintech, is truly the saint of Mars!
SpaceX (SPCX) surged 29% from the open, reaching a high of 30.3%, then closed up 19.22%. After a lengthy matching trading session, it finally listed around 11:46 AM Beijing time. Its initial matching bid of 160 yuan ultimately became the closing price for the day. The total trading volume exceeded $85 billion, more than four times Nvidia's trading volume. If sustained, this will exert significant pressure on the overall US stock sector and capital flows, not to mention two more trillion-dollar companies about to go public!
However, a successful IPO is a wealth feast. Not only did its fundraising reach $75 billion, surpassing Saudi Aramco's $29 billion in 2019 to become the largest initial public offering in human history, with a total market value of $2.1 trillion, Elon Musk became the first trillionaire in human history.

More importantly, all 4,400 employees in the company became millionaires, including 400 management and technical core staff who also joined the billionaire ranks. Compared to the IPO subscription price of 135 yuan, investors who won the allotment also gained substantial profits. The only question is when these highly profitable stockholders will sell in the future.

1. First-day surge: a necessary result under multiple stability conditions
This SPCX IPO only accounts for 4.2% of the total share capital. Although the size looks intimidating, the free float is actually much lower than similar giants, and there are many retail investors. As everyone knows, retail investors are the group most capable of bearing losses when stock prices fall, playing an important role in stock stability. Moreover, before listing, IPO subscription demand had exceeded $300 billion, with an oversubscription ratio of nearly 4 times. Many institutions and retail investors failed to get allocations in the primary market and instead bought heavily in the secondary market, directly boosting the opening premium. Expectations from crypto platforms also amplified the rise. Additionally, Nasdaq specifically revised its index rules in May, allowing new stocks with a market cap over $100 billion to be quickly included in the Nasdaq 100 within 15 trading days of listing. This means an additional $33 billion to $52 billion of passive index funds will be forced to allocate, further reinforcing bullish market expectations, as the market views this as liquidity support.
Furthermore, last night, Iran’s foreign minister, replacing Trump, talked extensively on X and news media about an imminent US-Iran nuclear deal, boosting risk capital leverage effects. Global risk assets did not crash for long during SpaceX’s listing. We can see this from the three major US stock indices: after SpaceX went public, the indices quickly fell into the red, but following the foreign minister’s and Wans’ speeches, US stocks rebounded. Although there was no big rally, the market maintained good stability!

Finally, let's discuss valuation logic. SpaceX is transforming from a “space manufacturer” to a “space technology platform.” Under the slogan of everyone becoming an astronaut, the market no longer views SpaceX as just a rocket launch company but as a future enterprise capable of leading humanity to build cities on the Moon and Mars, with a valuation outlook extending to 2023 and 2045. Its valuation is divided into four parts:
(1) Starlink business: by 2025, this segment will generate about $11.38 billion in revenue and $21k in operating profit, serving as a stable cash flow anchor. The global user base has exceeded 10 million, still doubling rapidly, making it an undisputed leader worldwide.
(2) Starship business: its reusable rockets will cut launch costs by two orders of magnitude and open markets for space freight, crewed travel, power generation, computing, and military applications.
(3) xAI business: now called space AI infrastructure, it builds a global distributed computing system via on-orbit data centers and the Starlink network. Goldman Sachs predicts that by 2030, AI-related revenue will reach $322 billion, becoming the largest growth curve in the long term.
(4) Future merger expectations with Tesla: currently, Musk’s dual-platform listed companies may not reach optimal market cap, but in the future, mergers and restructuring could ensure his companies reach the top spot globally.

More importantly, this IPO will serve as a stress test for US growth stocks’ risk appetite. As the first trillion-dollar hard tech IPO since the AI bull market, SpaceX’s first-day performance is seen as a benchmark for upcoming AI giants like OpenAI and Anthropic. After the capital siphoning effect, it could push US stocks higher, achieving a comprehensive valuation increase of dollar assets, or, like A-shares, lead to a structural shift from a 70/30 to a 30/70 market. This will only be clear once it’s included in major broad-based indices and ETFs. Outside observers might note that if Iran hadn’t helped yesterday, the global risk markets would likely have declined. Of course, ultimately, it will all be blamed on SpaceX. So, when your market support comes from the White House, what’s there to worry about in terms of falling below the offering price? Nonetheless, Musk truly is a saint—so wealthy, so innovative, and choosing not to go into fintech—this is his current halo of sainthood.

2. Impact on US stock liquidity: short-term effects
In the short term, the capital siphoning effect has already begun to show. On the first day, SpaceX’s trading volume exceeded $85 billion, accounting for nearly 12% of Nasdaq’s total daily trading volume. Large amounts of capital are shifting from marginal sectors and small/mid-cap stocks into this core asset.
In fact, a week before the IPO, the US tech sector experienced a phased correction, mainly as institutions and retail investors sold existing holdings to reallocate funds for the new stock. As the index inclusion window approaches, passive funds will need to reduce holdings in other Nasdaq 100 components to free up capital for SpaceX. Leading giants will face short-term selling pressure from passive reductions. But in the medium to long term, SpaceX will drive a reconfiguration of liquidity in the US tech sector. Additionally, the IPO’s impact on related industries shows a clear two-tiered structure.

Yesterday’s US commercial space sector showed a significant short-term “displacement effect.” On the IPO day, the US commercial space index plunged 9.72%, Virgin Galactic’s stock fell over 30%, and companies like Rocket Lab and Intuitive Machines dropped more than 10%. Under the Matthew effect, the market logic is clear: as the absolute leader, SpaceX’s technological, cost, and order advantages create a crushing edge, prompting investors to sell second- and third-tier industry stocks and concentrate on the leader, forming a “winner-takes-all” capital pattern. Its cost advantages and innovation will eventually pressure traditional aerospace giants like Boeing and Lockheed Martin, accelerating the US industrial shift toward commercialization and low-cost production.

As for how much SpaceX should be worth, in the short term, it might hover between $115 and $190, but under extreme sentiment, its market cap could drop by $1 trillion, reaching $1.2–$1.3 trillion. Since its business is diverse, its valuation anchor is dispersed, and any change in one segment could burst the valuation based on a PS ratio above 100. Especially after the 180-day lock-up period ends, early investors and employees holding shares will likely sell heavily, creating supply shocks. Tesla has also experienced a similar valuation re-affirmation process.