6.13 Bitcoin Market Outlook | Weekend Weak Volatility, Focus on Short Positions, Awaiting Rate Decision

$BTC
Currently, Bitcoin is trading at approximately 63,500 USD, in a narrow correction phase after a sharp decline. Market liquidity is low over the weekend, making volatility prone to amplification. The long-term bearish structure has not yet reversed, so the primary trading strategy is to favor short positions.

Entry: Rebound in the 638-642 range, with a target of 647, watch for 625-615.

The US May CPI exceeded expectations, completely eroding market expectations for rate cuts. The probability of a rate hike by the end of the year has risen to around 70%. Next week, the FOMC meeting on June 17-18 is the biggest risk point in the near term. The market generally expects hawkish policy signals, which will continue to suppress risk asset valuations. Spot ETF funds have not yet shown a trend of inflow, and the willingness of new funds to enter is insufficient, resulting in a lack of momentum for sustained market rally.

Daily Level: Price remains firmly below the 20-day and 50-day moving averages, Bollinger Bands are opening downward, and the price is moving within a downward channel. MACD is below the zero line, indicating weakening bearish momentum but no reversal signal. The current rebound only touches the 23.6% retracement of this decline, a weak resistance level, typical of a weak correction rather than a trend reversal.

4-Hour Level: Short-term, a small oscillating range has formed, RSI remains neutral, MACD shows a short-term golden cross, indicating slight rebound potential. However, the upper side is densely packed with bearish liquidity, raising doubts about the rebound's space and sustainability. #美PPI创两年半新高