Trump aims to create a "Super Weekend": hoping to sign the US-Iran agreement before turning 80

Mars Finance reports that on June 12, Trump has been hoping that this weekend could become his political highlight: the World Cup returns to the United States on Friday (for the first time in 32 years); on Sunday, on the day of his 80th birthday, a UFC bout will be held, and the White House will welcome thousands of guests; immediately after the bout, he will fly to France for the G7 summit. And his “sudden” statement on Thursday—“the U.S. and Iran may reach a final war-ending agreement this weekend”—has further driven market expectations to their peak.

On Friday, Iran’s Mehr News Agency listed detailed contents of a “14-point understanding memorandum draft” between the U.S. and Iran. The draft, exposed by Iran’s semi-official media, was later refuted by Trump in a post that same evening.

Ali Vaez, director of the Iran program at the International Crisis Group, analyzed that Trump’s escalation threats, on one hand, serve to show a stance of “toughness toward Iran” to hardliners at home, and on the other hand, in practice, to seek for himself a “victory-style exit.” Vaez revealed that even as Trump was issuing tough remarks, negotiations between Iran and the mediation teams from Pakistan, Turkey, and Qatar had already made substantive progress. Vaez also noted that Iran’s first direct attack on Israel last weekend (after the Israel Defense Forces previously struck Hezbollah in Lebanon) made the U.S. realize that if Israel carries out another airstrike on Lebanon, Iran would respond forcefully—meaning the cost of the U.S. pledge to “defend Israel” would rise sharply.

“Trump wants to end the war, but what he wants is a halo of victory and a secure exit—both are hard to achieve at the same time.”