6.13 Market Analysis

Trend — From Neutral to Bullish

News Highlights

Pakistani Prime Minister: Confirmed that the final text of the US-Iran agreement has been reached;

Iranian Foreign Minister: The US-Iran understanding memorandum may be signed within a few days;

SpaceX's first day of trading rose 19%, with a market capitalization surpassing $2 trillion

Data releases next week:

Tuesday morning at 10:00 — Japan announces interest rate decision;

Thursday at 2:00 AM — Wosh holds its first monetary policy meeting; reserve balance rate

Trading Data

Hyperliquid: Large traders remain largely unchanged

Coinglass: BTC’s dense short liquidation zone in the past month is 67,689-68,044; ETH’s short liquidation zone in the past month is also very dense from 1,692-1,770

US Stocks

The three major indices closed with slight gains, consistent with expectations. The so-called SpaceX siphon effect was already priced in during the IPO period. Since SpaceX was included in the Nasdaq and FTSE Russell indices, the pre-market speculation of high market cap driving the index higher can be considered somewhat validated.

Technical Analysis

BTC:

In recent days, it has been in a slight ineffective oscillation, never breaking through around 64,742, but similarly, the previous short-term HVN—60,682—has not been broken below. The 4-hour bearish divergence is gradually being smoothed out by the oscillation. Although larger timeframes still have downward pressure from moving averages, the first key resistance area has been challenged for the third time. While the subsequent trend remains uncertain, the market is gradually shifting from a bearish bias to a mixed outlook of bullish and bearish expectations.

Meanwhile, from a short-term price action perspective, there is a faint momentum to push upward toward the next key resistance zone, with HVN raised to 62,707, so an upward breakout is anticipated. Key resistance levels are 66,405-67,426.

ETH:

Basically aligned with BTC, the critical upward level of 1,718 has still not been effectively broken. Similarly, the previous short-term HVN—1,590—has not been broken below. Currently, HVN is raised to 1,667, and the short-term price action also shows bullish signs. If it breaks above 1,718, the next key resistance to watch is 1,772-1,819.

Meanwhile, if the daily MA30 moves downward again over the next 4-5 days, it is expected to resonate with the weekly MA and key resistance zones, making a breakout into the 1,772-1,819 range plausible.

Overall Analysis:

The US-Iran conflict has once again raised expectations for negotiations, although market feedback has diminished significantly. However, the signals are coming from the “not talking nonsense” Pakistani Prime Minister and Iranian Foreign Minister. Next week’s two major data releases are heavyweight, and amid market fears of rate hikes, it remains uncertain whether the market has already priced in these expectations or whether the data releases could trigger a phase of rebound.

It’s important to emphasize that the market currently lacks a clear bullish or bearish structure, only faint signs of upward breakout. Considering next week’s news and data, especially the past few rate-hike anticipation cycles, personal trading bias suggests a possible shift from bearish to bullish in the coming days.

The overall trend remains bearish, but in the medium to short term, there could be a rally driven by news and data, though one should not be overly optimistic about the magnitude of the gains.

Speculative Guesswork

Next week’s US-Iran conflict is expected to be positive, coupled with Japan’s decision to hold or cut interest rates, which could stimulate a synchronized rally. Until the Federal Reserve’s rate decision, which keeps rates unchanged while signaling hawkishness through the reserve balance rate, this short-lived rally may end, leading to further declines and new lows.