Is Bitcoin's current bottom far above historical bear markets? Galaxy throws out the "calm top" argument

Bitcoin trades around $63,400 before the deadline, nearly flat in the past 24 hours, fluctuating between $59k and $64k over the past week. Galaxy Digital research head Alex Thorn presents the argument of a "calm top" that raises the floor, believing that the unusual mild peak in October 2025 actually lifts the cycle's bottom, with a baseline scenario between $40k and $46k, well above historical bear markets. CryptoQuant points out that BTC has fallen into valuation ranges seen at previous major bear market bottoms.
(Background: The demand for BTC shrinking to "negative 650k coins" is rare in 7 years! CryptoQuant: The final cleansing has just begun.)
(Additional context: Gold drops below $4,200! All gains this year wiped out, interest rate hike probability surges to 70%, safe-haven assets retreat collectively.)

Key Summary

• Galaxy research head Alex Thorn estimates the cycle bottom for Bitcoin at $40k to $46k, far higher than past bear markets
• The peak in October 2025 is unusually calm, with only 2 out of 11 top indicators triggered, and the network-wide cost basis reaching 43.7% of its all-time high
• CryptoQuant: BTC valuation is only about 9% above realized price, weekly demand shrank by 650,200 coins, the most severe since January 2022

The bottom of this Bitcoin bear market might be "more expensive" than any previous one. Before the deadline, BTC is about $63,400, nearly unchanged in 24 hours, fluctuating between $59k and $64k over the past week. But the market's real concern isn't the current price, but where the cycle's floor will actually settle.

Galaxy Digital's forecast is "higher than everyone thinks."

Galaxy: A calm top actually raises the floor

Galaxy Digital research head Alex Thorn reviewed Bitcoin's four-year cycle and found a trend: each decline from peak to trough has been converging. The first two cycles saw drops of 85% and 84%, in 2022 it shrank to 77%, and in 2026 this cycle is only 51%. The shallower the decline, the higher the natural bottom.

The key is the "calm top" in October 2025. Thorn points out that only 2 of 11 traditional top indicators triggered at that time, even the Pi Cycle Top, a historically precise indicator, failed for the first time; the market profit metric MVRV only reached 2.29, far below previous cycles' 2.93 to 5.91. The market was not overly speculative, with little chip turnover, which is why the floor was raised.

The crucial insight is that a calm top raises the floor. Because the top in October was very mild, the network-wide cost basis is currently at 43.7% of its all-time high, compared to about 34%, 21%, and 17% in previous cycles.

Converted into price, Thorn provides three scenarios:

• Baseline: bottom at $40k to $46k
• Deeper washout: drop to $30k to $37k
• Shallower correction: stay at $51k to $54k

The current network-wide cost basis, or realized price, is about $53,600. However, Thorn does not rule out variability. He warns that this floor can fluctuate because the cost basis is reflexive; in a panic, distressed chips change hands, pulling the average cost down. He estimates that if the cost basis drops another 10% to 30%, the implied floor could be dragged from around $40k down to about $28k.

CryptoQuant: Valuation has entered the bear market bottom range

Another data point supports Galaxy's baseline scenario. CryptoQuant notes that BTC recently dipped to about $59,000, only about 9% above the realized price, falling into valuation ranges seen at previous major bear market bottoms.

Historically, including the FTX collapse in November 2022, cycle bottoms mostly form near or slightly below the realized price, aligning with Galaxy's $40k to $46k baseline.

But demand figures look grim. CryptoQuant reports that the combined demand from spot and speculative futures shrank by 652k coins in one week, the most severe since January 2022; the one-year demand indicator, which measures buying strength, has turned negative, indicating fewer buyers entering now than a year ago.

Thorn mentions that only 4 of 13 bottom indicators have triggered so far, and stronger signals have yet to appear; historically, bottoms tend to form 12 to 13 months after the peak, but this cycle has only been about 8 months, suggesting the bottom process may still be halfway through in terms of timing.

Frequently Asked Questions

Where does Galaxy estimate the bottom of this Bitcoin cycle?

Galaxy research head Alex Thorn's baseline scenario is $40,000 to $46,000, a deeper washout scenario is $30,000 to $37,000, and a shallower correction stays at $51,000 to $54,000. He emphasizes that the cost basis is variable and that panic could drag the floor down to around $28k.

Why does a "calm top" raise Bitcoin's bottom?

Because in October 2025, the market's speculative activity was low, with MVRV only reaching 2.29, and only 2 of 11 top indicators triggered. The chips changed hands less aggressively, keeping the network-wide cost basis at 43.7% of its all-time high, much higher than the 17% to 34% in previous cycles, thereby raising the cycle's floor.