JieWorld news reports that Galaxy Research researcher Alex Thorn analyzed that the signals for the top of Bitcoin’s current cycle are mild, with the network cost basis at 43.7% of the historical high. The expected baseline bottom range is $40000 to $460000, the deep washout scenario is $30000 to $37000, the shallow dip scenario is $51000 to $54000, and if panic selling occurs, the bottom could move down to $28000. CryptoQuant’s monitoring shows that Bitcoin’s spot price is approximately $59000, which is 9% higher than the realized price of $53600. Over the past week, the combined demand from speculative futures and spot decreased by 652,000 BTC.

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GateUser-0aa20a11
· 2h ago
I have read Alex Thorn's report. His prediction of a deep washout of $30k is based on the decline in 2018.
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Post-RainCancellationAgent
· 2h ago
This bottom range span is too large, from 28k to 54k, it’s basically meaningless.
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LookingAtTheCandlestickChart
· 2h ago
43.7% of the cost basis proportion indicates that veteran players have not yet exited on a large scale.
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0XNightRun
· 3h ago
So is this now a shallow decline scenario? With 59,000 down to the 51,000–54,000 bottom, there’s still room.
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BearMarketInAPaperCup
· 3h ago
Spot premium of 9% isn't actually high; back in 2021, it was over 30%.
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SentimentIndicatorCollecting
· 3h ago
The demand for 652k BTC decreases; this number looks frightening, but the signal of the cycle top is mild—consider it good news.
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