Galaxy Research: Bitcoin's "Calm Top" or Elevated Cycle Bottom, Bottom Range Expected Between $40k and $46k

Deep Tide TechFlow News, on June 13, according to Galaxy Research’s lead analyst Alex Thorn’s analysis, Bitcoin’s signals for the top of this cycle are extremely mild: among 11 traditional top indicators, only 2 have been triggered. The Pi Cycle Top indicator has not been triggered for the first time. The MVRV peak value is only 2.29, far below the previous cycle’s 2.93 to 5.91. Because the top is relatively calm, the network cost basis accounts for 43.7% of the historical high point, higher than 34%, 21%, and 17% in the prior cycles, which means the corresponding bottom price range is elevated.

Under Galaxy’s benchmark scenario, the bottom range is expected to be $40,000 to $46,000. In the deep washout scenario, it is $30,000 to $37,000. In the shallow dip scenario, it may stabilize around $51,000 to $54,000. Thorn also warns that the cost basis is reflexive; if a real panic sell-off occurs, the bottom could fall further to around $28,000.

On-chain data, according to CryptoQuant monitoring, shows that Bitcoin is currently in a valuation range at the lows of the historical bear market. The spot price is about $59,000, approximately 9% higher than the realized price of $53,600. In the past week, the combined speculative futures and spot demand decreased by 652,000 BTC, the largest single-week demand contraction since January 2022. The one-year demand indicator has also turned negative, indicating that current buyer strength is weaker than a year ago.